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Meteorologists say that if only they could design an accurate mathematical model

游客2024-01-12  38
问题 Meteorologists say that if only they could design an accurate mathematical model of the atmosphere with all its complexities, they could forecast the weather with real precision. But this is an idle boast, immune to any evaluation, for any inadequate weather forecast would obviously be blamed on imperfections in the model.
Which of the following, if true, could best be used as a basis for arguing against the author’s position that the meteorologists’ claim cannot be evaluated?
选项 A、Certain unusual configurations of data can serve as the basis for precise weather forecasts, even though the exact causal mechanisms are not understood.
B、Most significant gains in the accuracy of the relevant mathematical models are accompanied by clear gains in the precision of weather forecasts.
C、Mathematical models of the meteorological aftermath of such catastrophic events as volcanic eruptions are beginning to be constructed.
D、Modern weather forecasts for as much as a full day ahead are broadly correct about 80 percent of the time.
E、Meteorologists readily concede that the accurate mathematical model they are talking about is not now in their power to construct.
答案 B
解析 Which one of the following would provide the best basis for arguing against the authors reasoning?
Meteorologists claim that the design of a mathematical model that would accurately
capture all the complexities of weather dynamics would enable great precision in weather forecasting. However, according to the skeptical reasoning given, the meteorologists’ claim cannot be evaluated, because any inaccuracies in weather forecasting would be attributed to shortcomings in the model.
It is important to consider that with the incremental improvement of capabilities for collection and analysis of data, including new types of data, model construction would improve to more accurately reflect weather dynamics. However, it would remain true that random factors affecting weather may continue to reduce accuracy of forecasts.
A    This suggests that weather forecasting accuracy can be attained under certain unusual conditions, even in the absence of understanding complex factors that affect weather. Nevertheless, what is at issue in the skeptical reasoning given is how, or whether, overall forecasting accuracy can be attained under all conditions. Furthermore, it is unclear whether the meteorologists’ aspiration to great precision and accuracy in weather forecasting can even be evaluated.
B    Correct. This tells us that significant but incremental improvements in the accuracy of mathematical models result in gradual improvements in the accuracy of weather forecasting—even if wholly accurate and precise forecasts are never attained. This would allow evaluation of any progress in modeling and forecasting weather.
C    Volcanic eruptions can affect weather but they do not rank as major ongoing causes of weather phenomena. The reasoning given refers to forecasting of weather under all conditions, whether the meteorologists’ ideal is attainable or can even be evaluated.
D    This suggests that current weather
forecasting falls significantly short of the forecasting accuracy that the meteorologists mentioned aspire to. This idea reinforces the skeptical reasoning that suggests the meteorologists’ ideal is not amenable to evaluation and may not even be attainable.
E    This does not convey a reason for thinking the meteorologists’ claim can reasonably be subjected to evaluation; furthermore, it seems to provide some support for the skeptical reasoning given.
The correct answer is B.
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