首页
登录
职称英语
Meteorologists say that if only they could design an accurate mathematical model
Meteorologists say that if only they could design an accurate mathematical model
游客
2024-01-12
19
管理
问题
Meteorologists say that if only they could design an accurate mathematical model of the atmosphere with all its complexities, they could forecast the weather with real precision. But this is an idle boast, immune to any evaluation, for any inadequate weather forecast would obviously be blamed on imperfections in the model.
Which of the following, if true, could best be used as a basis for arguing against the author’s position that the meteorologists’ claim cannot be evaluated?
选项
A、Certain unusual configurations of data can serve as the basis for precise weather forecasts, even though the exact causal mechanisms are not understood.
B、Most significant gains in the accuracy of the relevant mathematical models are accompanied by clear gains in the precision of weather forecasts.
C、Mathematical models of the meteorological aftermath of such catastrophic events as volcanic eruptions are beginning to be constructed.
D、Modern weather forecasts for as much as a full day ahead are broadly correct about 80 percent of the time.
E、Meteorologists readily concede that the accurate mathematical model they are talking about is not now in their power to construct.
答案
B
解析
Which one of the following would provide the best basis for arguing against the authors reasoning?
Meteorologists claim that the design of a mathematical model that would accurately
capture all the complexities of weather dynamics would enable great precision in weather forecasting. However, according to the skeptical reasoning given, the meteorologists’ claim cannot be evaluated, because any inaccuracies in weather forecasting would be attributed to shortcomings in the model.
It is important to consider that with the incremental improvement of capabilities for collection and analysis of data, including new types of data, model construction would improve to more accurately reflect weather dynamics. However, it would remain true that random factors affecting weather may continue to reduce accuracy of forecasts.
A This suggests that weather forecasting accuracy can be attained under certain unusual conditions, even in the absence of understanding complex factors that affect weather. Nevertheless, what is at issue in the skeptical reasoning given is how, or whether, overall forecasting accuracy can be attained under all conditions. Furthermore, it is unclear whether the meteorologists’ aspiration to great precision and accuracy in weather forecasting can even be evaluated.
B Correct. This tells us that significant but incremental improvements in the accuracy of mathematical models result in gradual improvements in the accuracy of weather forecasting—even if wholly accurate and precise forecasts are never attained. This would allow evaluation of any progress in modeling and forecasting weather.
C Volcanic eruptions can affect weather but they do not rank as major ongoing causes of weather phenomena. The reasoning given refers to forecasting of weather under all conditions, whether the meteorologists’ ideal is attainable or can even be evaluated.
D This suggests that current weather
forecasting falls significantly short of the forecasting accuracy that the meteorologists mentioned aspire to. This idea reinforces the skeptical reasoning that suggests the meteorologists’ ideal is not amenable to evaluation and may not even be attainable.
E This does not convey a reason for thinking the meteorologists’ claim can reasonably be subjected to evaluation; furthermore, it seems to provide some support for the skeptical reasoning given.
The correct answer is B.
转载请注明原文地址:https://tihaiku.com/zcyy/3357069.html
相关试题推荐
Toronto’sthirdCityHall,nowknownasOldCityHall,wasdesignedbyEdwar
Toronto’sthirdCityHall,nowknownasOldCityHall,wasdesignedbyEdwar
Toronto’sthirdCityHall,nowknownasOldCityHall,wasdesignedbyEdwar
Toronto’sthirdCityHall,nowknownasOldCityHall,wasdesignedbyEdwar
Toronto’sthirdCityHall,nowknownasOldCityHall,wasdesignedbyEdwar
Afterbeingtestedinmanyways,thisnewly-designedmachinewill______inthe
Visitorscannothelpbut______thebeautifuldesignofthepalace.A、noticingB、no
Toronto’sthirdCityHall,nowknownasOldCityHall,wasdesignedbyEdwar
Toronto’sthirdCityHall,nowknownasOldCityHall,wasdesignedbyEdwar
Toronto’sthirdCityHall,nowknownasOldCityHall,wasdesignedbyEdwar
随机试题
Ifyouareayoungcollegestudent,mostofyourconcernsaboutyourhealth
软木制品系栓树的外皮加工而成,是一种优异的保温隔热、防震、吸音材料,下面列举的软
全口义齿初戴时,下列哪项不是选磨的主要原因A.垂直距离一般均过高 B.架不可能
IFG的诊断标准是()A.≥7.8mmoI/L-<11.1mmol/L B.
扰动的黏质土在饱和状态下,因干燥收缩至体积不变的含水率称为()。A.液限 B
证券公司未按照规定对离任的法定代表人或者高级管理人员进行审计,并报送审计报告的,
2020年,全国集成电路出口单价约为多少元/个?A.5.2 B.4.3
遗传素质是人身心发展的( )。 A.主导因素 B.决定因素 C.物质前提
(2020年真题)企业发生的产品广告费记入的会计科目是()。A.主营业务成本
根据《生产安全事故报告和调查处理条例》,对事故发生单位主要负责人处上一年年收入4
最新回复
(
0
)