以往几个世纪人口的增长并不能证明人口会无限地直线向上增长直到毁灭的地步。相反地,人口统计史料证明人口的增长完全不是一成不变的。若技术革新的成果开始减少,

游客2023-12-23  31

问题     以往几个世纪人口的增长并不能证明人口会无限地直线向上增长直到毁灭的地步。相反地,人口统计史料证明人口的增长完全不是一成不变的。若技术革新的成果开始减少,从250到350年前就在西方开通出现的并且目前还在继续的人口迅速增长可能也会放慢。当然,当前的知识革命也许会持续下去而无法预见其未来。无论如何,与那种认为人口以几何级数持续增长的观点相反,从长远的观点来说,人口可望受到生产力的调节。接受了这一观点,人口的增长就右以被看成是经济进步和人类胜利的标志,而不是社会衰败的标志。

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答案     The growth of population during the past few centuries is no proof that population will continue to grow straight upward toward infinity and doom. On the contrary, demographic history offers evidence that population growth has not been at all constant. The present rapid growth, which began in the West between 250 and 350 years ago, may also slow down when, or if, technology begins to yield fewer innovations. Of course, the current knowledge revolution may continue without foreseeable End. Either way—contrary to popular belief in constant geometric growth--population can be expected in the long run to adjust to productivity. And when one takes this view, population growth is seen to represent economic progress and human triumph rather than social failure.

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