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  3. It is more than a quarter of a century since the leaders of the world, gathe

It is more than a quarter of a century since the leaders of the world, gathe

游客2024-01-02  9
问题     It is more than a quarter of a century since the leaders of the world, gathered in Rio de Janeiro in 1992, committed their countries to avoiding "dangerous anthropogenic interference in the climate system" by signing the UN convention on climate change. The case for living up to their words has only become stronger. The level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere grows unremittingly. Average global temperatures have risen, too, to about 1°C above those of the pre-industrial era. The science that links the two is incontestable. Recent extreme-weather events, from floods in Hanoi to fires in California, were made more likely by the change that the climate has already undergone. Things will only get worse — perhaps catastrophically so.
In a sense the world is already equipped for the task at hand. Wind and solar power have, after huge subsidies, joined nuclear reactors and dams as affordable ways of generating gigawatts of electricity without burning fossil fuels. As our Technology Quarterly this week shows, parts of the energy system not easily electrified—some forms of transport, industrial processes like making steel and cement, heating offices and homes—could also be decarbonized with coming technologies. And policymakers have tools to bring about change, including carbon taxes, regulation, subsidies and, if they choose, command and control.
    Yet when the parties to the convention on climate change meet again in Katowice, Poland, on December 2nd, it will be against a backdrop not just of rising temperatures but also of rising despair. The problem is obvious: the stakes are huge; solutions are within reach. So why is the response inadequate?
    The chief reason is that the world has no history of dealing with such a difficult problem, nor the institutions to do so. The harm done by climate change is not visited on the people, or the generations, that have the best chance of acting against it. Those who suffer most harm are and will be predominantly poor and in poor countries. The people called on to pay the costs of reducing that harm are and will be mostly much better off.
    The better off are more able to adapt to climate change than the poor, and thus have less cause to avoid change. And making the poor wealthy enough to adapt involves economic growth that is still mostly powered by fossil fuels. Although no one should be asked to forgo that growth, it has consequences.
    What might produce a moment of clarity to break this impasse? One possibility is the sheer impact of climate change. Geophysical features of Earth are already being redrawn. The dry edges of the tropics are heading pole wards at about 50km a decade. The line of aridity defining the American West has moved roughly 230km east since 1980. The sea ice in the Arctic is a shadow of its former self. Nobody can know whether the world will one day wake up and cut emissions to zero. Even if it does, the main problem — the stock of greenhouse gases already emitted — will remain. A crash programme to suck carbon dioxide out of the air would take vast resources and years to make a difference.
    Another spur might be innovation. The world would have many fewer firms developing electric cars were it not for Elon Musk and Tesla. But without policies to spread innovation, such as a carbon tax or subsidy and regulation, inventiveness alone is insufficient. The technology that matters is the technology being used.
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答案     1992年，世界各国领导人齐聚里约热内卢，签署了一项有关气候变化的联合国公约，承诺避免“气候系统受到危险的人为干扰”。26年后的今天，履行承诺的合作行动比以往任何时候都更加迫在眉睫：大气中二氧化碳含量不断增加；全球平均气温也有上升趋势，已高出前工业化时期1℃左右，此两者的因果关系已无须论证。而最近的极端天气事件(从河内的洪水到加利福尼亚州的火灾)，也极有可能是气候变化所致。目前看来，形势只会变得更糟，甚至可以说是灾难性的。
    从某种意义上来说，当今世界己具备了应对眼下危机的能力。政府的巨额补贴使风能、太阳能可以与核能、水能一起，成为发电数千兆瓦的经济型能源选择，并进而取代化石燃料。本周的《技术季刊》(Technology Quarterly)称，能源系统中不易通电部分，如某些形式的运输以及炼钢和水泥制造、办公室和住宅供暖等工业过程，也可利用新兴技术进行脱碳化处理。决策者可采取诸多助推手段，如征收碳税、设立监管、增加补贴，若有必要，还可以加大行政管控力度。
    然而，12月2日在波兰卡托维兹(Katowice)再次举行会晤时，摆在气候变化公约缔约国面前的，不仅是日益升高的全球温度，还有日渐升级的绝望情绪。问题显而易见：情势危急利益攸关，解决方案触手可及，但为何迟迟不见积极的应对措施?
    究其原因，主要是各国以前从未处理过此类难题，也没有相关的负责机构。目前气候变化造成的危害，还没有真正影响到最有机会对气候采取行动的一代人或几代人。现在和未来气候变化的最大受害者，是贫困人口和贫穷国家，而要为降低危害买单的却主要是富足人群。
    富人比穷人更能适应气候变化，因而缺乏助推变革的动力。而让穷人变富以增强适应能力，必然绕不开化石燃料所带动的经济增长。尽管谁也不想使这种经济增长止步，但它带来的环保问题的确很严重。
    到底什么可以彻底打破僵局呢?一种可能性是气候变化的绝对影响。地球的地理特征已经发生了变化；热带地区的干旱边缘正以大约每十年50公里的速度向极地移动；自1980年以来，划分美国西部的干旱线已向东移动了约230公里；而北极的海冰也已今非昔比。谁也无法预知人类何时会幡然醒悟，将排放量削减到零。即便能做到，已经排放的温室气体所造成的环境问题，仍将继续存在。吸收空气中二氧化碳的应急工程，更需耗费大量资源和时间才能见效。
    另一种可能是技术创新。埃隆-马斯克(Elon Musk)和特斯拉无疑是电动汽车企业技术研发的最大推动者，但若没有碳税、补贴和监管等政策来鼓励创新，那创新本身便不足以促进变革。因为技术的价值在于应用。
解析 This forum directly served the overall objective of the Expo and focused on the theme of new trends and changes in economic development at home and abroad. Based on the philosophy of inclusive development, it aimed at making economic globalization more open, inclusive, balanced and beneficial for all, building an open world economy and prompting global trade growth.
The Forum consisted of an opening ceremony, also the opening session of the CUE, three parallel forums, International Business Media and Think Tank Forum, themed on "spurring new vitality of global trade and creating an open and win-win scenario". The three parallel forums focused on the topics of "trade and opening" "trade and innovation" and "trade and investment". Discussions were held around the promotion of trade and investment liberalization and facilitation, the construction of an open world economy, and the boosting of trade innovation growth with trade in services, the digital economy and e-commerce. Moreover, new impetus of economic growth, constructive interaction between trade and investment and sustainable development were also among the topics.
The three forums attracted more than 2,400 visitors, including delegations at national and regional levels, international organizations, exhibitors, purchasers and other business representatives.
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