•You will hear an interview between a radio presenter and Ghosn, the CEO of Niss

Where do you see the greatest growth opportunities?
You’re going to see the US, Europe, and Japan stabilizing at around the 2002 level. I’m not expecting a big increase in these markets, because they have reached a decent level.
When you are at 17 million cars and trucks in the US, obviously you can say it can go up to 18 million. Personally, I don’t think so. There has already been a lot of stimulation of incentives they can hardly go higher. In December the average incentive for the Big Three was nearly $4,000. For companies making an average of $300 to $400 per car, you’re at the end game here. So there is going to be some kind of relief from maximum incentive games.
Do you see any big changes in the relative strength of the global producers?
The existing balance in the car industry is not stable. Some ’car manufacturers are making a lot of money, some hardly any. This is okay for one year, two years, but for five years, it doesn’t stand. If it is a recurring phenomenon, it is going to trigger, in my opinion, another wave of consolidation, regrouping, alliances whatever — because you can’t have the same industry for long time business systems with a high level of discrepancy in the results.
What are the winning strategies in China?
For the moment, any strategy in China is a winner for the simple reason that there is under capacity. You can’t say who is going to lose and who is going to win, because everybody is going to win. Little by little, you are going to come to a situation of overcapacity, which is a normal situation of the industry. The challenge right now is not to get carried away too much by your present results. Don’t believe in your present success. Prepare yourself for when we come to overcapacity and cars will not be a rare commodity in China. So if you are sleeping on your laurels now and saying, "I’m doing fine in China," and you are not working on quality or cost or efficiency or speed, you are going to have problems.
What about other growth markets?
Mercosur is going to be a better market — it has been a disaster the last three years, particularly with Argentina collapsing and Brazil at a low level. Southeast Asia is going to continue to recuperate. And you are going to continue to see the resurgence and development of markets like India and the Middle East. The Middle East market should be much more flourishing than it is today, particularly if the US President succeeds in bringing economic development, because that is the key to peace in the Middle East.
Your views on alternative fuels are controversial.
Hybrid is not a good business proposition. I know a lot of people say they are making a lot of money on hybrids. I’m skeptical. But I think hybrid has the potential to become a good business proposition in that the value you provide to consumers is higher than the cost you are going to ask them to pay for it.
I still think gasoline over the next ten years is going to represent a majority of the cars sold. But you are going to see more hybrids; you are going to see the first fuel-ceil car; you are going to see more diesel in the category of light-duty trucks and SUVs. Where you are going to have a battle is between diesel technology, mainly developed by the Europeans, and hybrid technology, developed by the Japanese. We’re in a market in which value is very important. Even though people talk about technology and sophisticated principles, when they make a decision they go for the most commonsense decision. Gasoline engines represent the most commonsense decision in any market.  I’m not expecting a revolution; there will be an evolution.
You are due to leave Japan next year to take over Renault in Paris. What do you think your legacy will be?
The Nissan story is probably going to be one of the most significant stories of the auto industry. It is not a common story. It is about Japan, it is about alliances, it is about the auto industry, it is about globalization, it is about cross-cultural management. There are so many things embedded into this story. It is an underdog story, a success story. It is going to be in the cases that will be studied.
What have you learned about the auto industry?
The auto industry is an industry of mules, not racehorses. It is one where the animal with the fewest handicaps is going to win the race, not the one with the perfect pedigree. A mule is a very solid animal. I spent a few days in Brazil, and I was riding a horse in the mountains, and there were some people there with a mule. And I said a mule is much safer than a horse because a mule will never put its feet in a hole, while a horse from time to time will get carried away.
How important are hot products?
Very important. I mean, Nissan has 11.3% operating margins, mainly based on our products. It’s not cost, it’s not quality, it’s products. This is where you make your money. If 50% of your products are successful, you’ll be at 6% operating margins. If you have 25%, you’ll be at 2%. It is a very simple equation. Obviously the products have to be supported by good fundamentals, lean costs, good quality, etc. But it is still the heart of the business.