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  3. A new, theoretical analysis finds that about half of the risk factors for Al

A new, theoretical analysis finds that about half of the risk factors for Al

游客2024-03-08  31
问题     A new, theoretical analysis finds that about half of the risk factors for Alzheimer’s disease (老年痴呆症) are potentially changeable, and that reducing them could substantially decrease the number of new cases of disease worldwide, according to a study to be presented Tuesday at the Alzheimer’s Association International Conference.
    The study is the first known analysis that tries to quantify and compare how risk factors are associated with Alzheimer’s. It will be published Tuesday on the journal Lancet Neurology’s website after the conference presentation.
    Factors that increase one’s risk for Alzheimer’s that are considered modifiable include diabetes (糖尿病) , high blood pressure, obesity, smoking, sedentary behavior, depression and low educational level, say the authors from the University of California, San Francisco (UCSF).
    In the US, physical inactivity is the biggest changeable factor, accounting for 21% of the risk for Alzheimer’s, followed by depression and smoking. Added together, the factors account for about 50% of the risk.
    If these risk factors were decreased by just 10% , about 184,000 Alzheimer’s cases in the US and 1.1 million cases worldwide could be prevented, according to the research. A reduction of 25% on all seven risk factors could prevent nearly half a million cases in the US and more than three million worldwide, the analyses showed.
    " The estimates suggest that in the population, up to half of Alzheimer’s cases could be modifiable," said Deborah Barnes, a professor at UCSF who will present the results. "If we changed those risk factors…it could have this huge impact at the population level," she said in an interview.
    One caveat (警告) to these findings: They are based on mathematical models that predict what might happen if the assumptions on which the model was based are real. In this case, the researchers assumed that the risk factors caused Alzheimer’s disease, which means that if they were modified, the rates of Alzheimer’s would change as well.
    In reality, the causes of Alzheimer’s are still unclear, and it hasn’t been proven that stopping smoking, for example, actually lowers one’s risk of getting it.
    These estimates were calculated based on published data about how frequently the risk factors occur in the population as well as the extent to which each factor increases one’s risk of Alzheimer’s, known as relative risk.
    The next step in this work is to do prevention trials to try to modify these risks to see if they can actually keep off Alzheimer’s, Dr. Barnes says. She hopes to conduct a trial on physical activity, because it seems like the biggest bang for your buck, because it is known to help the brain, the heart and mood, she says. [br] Why are the findings based on mathematic models and assumptions?
选项 A、Because Alzheimer’s disease is an assumed one.
B、Because Alzheimer’s disease cannot be prevented.
C、Because the causes of Alzheimer’s disease are still not clear.
D、Because the symptoms of Alzheimer’s disease can hardly be changed.
答案 C
解析 由题干中的findings和mathematic models and assumptions定位到原文第七、八段推理判断题。本题考查这些研究成果为什么是基于数学模型和假设而得出的。第七段指出，这些研究结果仅是通过数学模型计算和假设得出的，下一段指出该病的真正起因尚未可知。C)“因为老年痴呆症的病因尚不明确”与原文表述一致，故为答案。
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