2. 职称英语
  3. The first pre-election poll, or "straw vote", as it was then called, was con

The first pre-election poll, or "straw vote", as it was then called, was con

游客2024-02-27  14
问题     The first pre-election poll, or "straw vote", as it was then called, was conducted by the Harrisburg Pennsylvanian before the 1824 presidential election. This straw vote and the many that followed it really registered nothing but local opinion. However, as communications’ improved and elections were won by closer and closer margins, newspapers and journals tried desperately to satisfy their readers’curiosity in more reliable ways.
    Before the 1928 elections, no fewer than eighty-five publications made private inquiries generally by means of questionnaires(问卷、调查表) sent to subscribers (订单) and by telephone surveys. The principle common to all these inquiries was that they depended on quantity rather than quality; little effort was made to reach representatives of all segments (部分) of the population. Still, the erroneous belief persisted that the greater the number of questionnaires, the more accurate the results would be. The re cord was held by the American monthly Literary Digest, which sent out millions of postcards with short and pointed questions before each election, and received many hundreds of thousands of replies. In fact, in 1932, the Literary Digest’s forecast was off by only 1 percent.
    in view of such striking achievements, it seemed rather impertinent (粗鲁的) for the young American journalist, George Gallup, to claim that large numbers were irrelevant, and that equally accurate or better predictions could be made with a small but carefully selected sample of the population and a small team of skilled interviewers.
    In 1936, it took Gallup a long time to convince thirty-five newspaper editors that his system was much cheaper than the customary mass inquiries and that it could provide surprisingly accurate predictions. The editors finally agreed, on condition that if Gallup’s predictions were less accurate than those obtained by the tried method of the Literary Digest, he would have to refund(赔偿) the entire cost of the investigation. Although the Literary Digest broke its own record by obtaining two million replies to its electoral postcards that year, its prediction was wrong by 19 percent, whereas Gallup’s was off by less than 1 percent. [br] We can infer from the passage that in the early 1930s ______.
选项 A、Gallup was a famous journalist
B、the Literary Digest liked to break records
C、the Literary Digest was the biggest monthly in America
D、the method of the Literary Digest was popular and well-received
答案 D
解析 盖洛普当时只是个年轻的记者，费了很大劲才说服别人采用他的调查方法，所以A项是不正确的。文叶，虽然两次提到《文摘》月刊保持和打破记录，但不能由此推断它喜欢破记录，所以B项也不是正确答案。C项在文中找不到依据，所以也不对。只有D项是正确的推论，因为文章第二段的最后一句话告诉我们，《文摘》对1932年选举的预测误差仅为百分之一，而且第四段又说编辑们给盖洛普提的条件是如果他的预测不如《文摘》准确，他就得掏钱负担整个调查的费用，可见《文摘》采用的方法是为大多数人所接受的。
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