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  3. "Throughout history, poverty is the normal condition of man," wrote Robert H

"Throughout history, poverty is the normal condition of man," wrote Robert H

游客2024-01-21  35
问题     "Throughout history, poverty is the normal condition of man," wrote Robert Heinlein, a science-fiction writer. Until the 18th century, global GDP per person was stuck between $725 and $1,100, around the same income level as the World Bank’s current poverty line of $1.90 a day. But global income levels per person have since accelerated, from around $1,100 in 1800 to $3,600 in 1950, and over $10,000 today.
    Economists have long tried to explain this sudden surge in output. Most theories have focused on the factors driving long-term economic growth such as the quantity and productivity of labor and capital. But a new paper takes a different tack (思路): faster growth is not due to bigger booms, but to less shrinking in recessions. Stephen Broadberry of Oxford University and John Wallis of the University of Maryland have taken data for 18 countries in Europe and the New World, some from as far back as the 13th century. To their surprise, they found that growth during years of economic expansion has fallen in the recent era—from 3.88% between 1820 and 1870 to 3.06% since 1950—even though average growth across all years in those two periods increased from 1.4% to 2.55% .
    Instead, shorter and shallower slumps led to rising long-term growth. Output fell in a third of years between 1820 and 1870 but in only 12% of those since 1950. The rate of decline per recession year has fallen too, from 3% to 1.2%.
    So why have these "growth reversals" decreased in length and depth? In another paper Broadberry and Wallis find that conventional explanations—such as demographic change or a sectoral shift from volatile (不稳定的) agriculture to the more stable services sector—do not fully explain the shift.
    More important is the rise of the rule of law, enabling disputes to be settled by impartial courts. Before the modern era, elites would fight between themselves for the spoils of growth and send the economy back to square one through wars, corruption and the like. Respect for courts to resolve disputes prevents this from happening. With populist (民粹主义的) politicians challenging the authority of judges once again across the world, that is food for thought. [br] According to Broadberry and Wallis, what is a better explanation for growth reversals decreasing in length and depth?
选项 A、The rule of law.
B、The structure of population.
C、The output of agriculture.
D、The stability of the service industry.
答案 A
解析 事实细节题。由题干中的growth reversals定位到第四段和第五段第一句。作者在第四段第一句提出疑问：这些“增长逆转”为何在长度和深度方面有所下降?第二句具体指出，在另一篇论文中，布劳德伯利和沃利斯发现传统的解释——比如人口统计数据的变化或者行业从不稳定的农业转向更稳定的服务业——并不能完全解释这一变化。紧接着第五段第一句提到，更为重要的是法治的兴起，使纠纷可以通过公正的法庭得以解决。由此可知，布劳德伯利和沃利斯认为法治的兴起才是更好的解释，故答案为A)。
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