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  3. Two years ago, radio station WCQP in Rockville decided to increase the number of

Two years ago, radio station WCQP in Rockville decided to increase the number of

游客2024-01-12  10
问题 Two years ago, radio station WCQP in Rockville decided to increase the number of call-in advice programs that it broadcast; since that time, its share of the radio audience in the Rockville listening area has increased significantly. Given WCQP’s recent success with call-in advice programming, and citing a nationwide survey indicating that many radio listeners are quite interested in such programs, the station manager of KICK in Medway recommends that KICK include more call-in advice programs in an attempt to gain a larger audience share in its listening area.
Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.
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答案     In this article, the manager of KICK radio station in Medway argues for the inclusion of more call-in advice programs in hopes of securing a larger share of audience in the region. To substantiate this piece of recommendation, the station manager cites the alleged success at the WCQP radio station in Rockville and the national survey that many radio listeners are interested in such call-in programs. Although such lines of reasoning appear valid at first glance, close examination reveals that they lack critical evidence to support. As a result, it remains unclear whether introducing more call-in programs at KICK will actually promote the audience share, unless some important questions can be properly addressed.
    To begin with, the author cites the recent success enjoyed by radio station WCQP in Rockville and attributes its increase in radio audience to the adoption of more call-in advice programs. While in general two events occurring sequentially may indeed imply some kinds of causal relationship, we need to ask if the call-in advice programs are indeed responsible for the higher number of listeners. Could it be the case that WCQP has introduced other shows in addition to the call-in advice programs? For example, if WCQP hired a famous music DJ, or began broadcasting radio talk shows that attracted more audience, its later success might well have little to do with the decision to include more call-in programs. In this case, the effect of call-in advice programs at KICK may not be as promising as the manager predicts. On the contrary, if it turns out that the call-in advice programs are the only change WCQP made two years ago, such programs may indeed play a key role in boosting WCQP’s audience share.
    Granted that WCQP’s higher audience share can be confidently attributed to the call-in advice programs, whether or not similar programs could potentially benefit KICK radio station as well is unresolved. We need to ask if WCQP and KICK are comparable in the sense of the composition of radio listeners. It is possible that in Rockville most of the radio listeners are young people who are more eager to participate in call-in programs to express their views, while the average age of Medway residents is significantly older and hence more reluctant to call the radio station. If this is the case, KICK radio station would benefit little from the call-in advice programs. Yet, the opposite is possible, too. Medway and Rockville may be two similar towns in many ways so that the radio audience has the same taste. If so, the success at WCQP radio station could be replicated in KICK station as well, as the station manager projects.
    In addition to the case of WCQP, the manager uses a national survey among radio listeners to claim the popularity of call-in programs, but there are two questions related to this survey that must be answered before the success of call-in advice programs in KICK radio station can be reasonably evaluated. First, it remains unclear how valid the survey itself is. If for instance the study only surveys a very small number of people, its intrinsic mathematical validity would be called into serious doubt and the implication be questioned. Second, even if we acknowledge that the survey is statistically valid, whether the conclusion can reasonably be applied to Medway is another question. Here the author assumes Medway represents the national average in terms of radio program preference, but this assumption may well prove wrong. If Medway residents prefer music programs on radio and do not particularly enjoy call-in shows, KICK radio station’s new programs may not end well. On the other hand, perhaps Medway is indeed well represented by the national poll, and in this case the station manager’s proposal would be more well-founded.
    To summarize, despite the purported success at WCQP radio station thanks to call-in advice programs and the national survey claiming public interest in such programs, whether or not KICK radio station could enlarge its audience share from call-in programs remain to be seen. Specifically, a number of questions pertaining the case of WCQP and the national survey must be answered. Depending on the answers to those questions, KICK may succeed in gaining a larger audience, but could also end up failing in that objective. (711 words)
解析     本题再次反映了Argument题目中常见的逻辑问题：他山之石，可以攻玉。一个政策看似在其他地方获得了成功，因此可以嫁接到本地。在本题中，WCQP成功的来电咨询节目就是他山之石，应该被运用到KICK电台上。除此之外，作者的论证还利用到了一个全国范围的调查，如下所示：
    (WCQP电台增加了来电咨询项目+WCQP获得了更大的地区份额)→WCQP来电咨询项目成功+全国调查表明，听众对来电咨询感兴趣→KICK电台也应该开设来电咨询的节目
    关于其他人的成功我们可以套用前面提到过的思维模板：WCQP真的成功吗?成功的原因真的是来电咨询节目吗?它的成功可以复制到KICK电台吗?这里我们要注意的是，第一点WCQP的成功与否，题目中说的获得了更大的市场份额不太好讨论，因此我们跳过这一点，直接进入第二点：WCQP的成功是否能够归结于来电咨询项目。为此，我们要指明可能存在同期的其他因素改变了WCQP电台的受欢迎程度，我们还需要回答同期WCQP做出了哪些改变。
    接着我们再来思考就算WCQP的成功要归功于来电咨询节目，这一成就能否在KICK电台重现。所有这一系列类比的论证都有一个很重要的假设，也即比较对象之间存在可比性，或者说他们有很高的相似性。很显然，如果KICK的听众和WCQP的听众组成差别很大，那我们很难得出KICK的听众也会对来电咨询类节目感兴趣这一结论(但注意我们也没有否定这一可能性，只是说“现有的信息无法推导出这一结论”)，进而需要更多的信息来帮助我们判断。
    最后，关于全国范围的调查则又可以说是集结了Argument中调查的典型问题：调查人数有多少?是否随机取样?样本是否具有代表性?问题是否有倾向性?这些都是可以涉及的，但不建议纠缠过久，因为这个调查还有一个更加明显的问题，那就是全国的调查可否适用于KICK电台所在的地方。这一点也是调查类问题常见的一个通病，即调查结果是A，但是结论却推广或缩放到了B。本文中，全国的趋势不一定能够代表洛克维尔的情况，因此KICK电台引入来电咨询节目不一定对收听率有好处。
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