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  3. If Asian policy makers have a grand vision, it is that someday people from J

If Asian policy makers have a grand vision, it is that someday people from J

游客2023-12-28  53
问题     If Asian policy makers have a grand vision, it is that someday people from Japan and China to Malaysia and Myanmar will pay for groceries using the same currency.
    The idea of a single East Asian currency will be debated this week at the Asian Development Bank’s annual meeting in the South Korean resort island of Jeju, where a European Central Bank board member, Tommaso Padoa-Schioppa, will share with Asian finance ministers " lessons" from a 50-year journey that has led to 12 European nations sharing the euro.
    Should the countries of East Asia aim for their own " Asian dollar" ?
    The rationale for a single currency is simple. For exporters in one Asian country selling to importers in another, being paid in Asian dollars would mean their profits were protected no matter what happened to the U. S. currency. Consumers would benefit from easier price comparisons, and travelers would save money by not having to change their currency from country to country.
    East Asia is home to a third of the world’s population and is its fastest-growing region. The World Bank estimates that East Asian economies will collectively expand 6. 3 percent this year. The region’s central banks hold $ 2 trillion of foreign currency reserves, which, if pooled, would make an Asian dollar a tough target for currency speculators to pull down.
    A single East Asian currency would require an accord similar to the European Union’s Stability and Growth pact, which would require governments to live within their means — a tall order for countries such as the Philippines that are plagued by chronic budget deficits.
    Monetary cooperation could eventually lead to a single currency. Still, if East Asia wants to follow Europe, it must speed up efforts for freer movement of goods and people across national boundaries. Then will come the painful part: trying to get Asian states to accept a unifying agency along the lines of the European Central Bank.
    The Asian dollar may not be here soon. But to say it will never arrive is to underestimate the power of progress.
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答案     如果亚洲的决策者眼光远大，就会预见总有一天日本人、中国人、马来西亚人、缅句人都用同一种货币来购买生活用品。
    关于东亚单一货币这一想法，本周在韩国避暑胜地济州岛举行的亚洲开发银行年会上将加以讨论。欧洲中央银行董事托马索?帕多阿一什奥帕将出席会议，与亚洲各国财长一起探讨欧洲十二个国家为共享欧元而走过的五十年的历程。
    东亚各国是否应该致力于自己的“亚元”呢?
    使用单一货币，其道理很简单。如果一个亚洲国家的出口商将货物卖给另一国家的进口商而用亚元结算，那就意味着无论美国的货币发生什么问题，这些商人的利润都是得到保护的。消费者可以因便于作价格比较而得到好处。旅行者也可以因不必将一国货币换成另一国货币而省钱。
    世界人口的三分之一生活在东亚，东亚也是亚洲发展最快的地区。据世界银行预测。东亚各经济体作为一个整体今年将增长6．3个百分点。这一地区的中央银行共掌握两万亿美元外汇储备，如果集中使用，便可产生强大的亚元，这样的亚元是货币投机者无法击垮的。
    实行东亚单一货币，就需要遵守与“欧盟稳定与发展公约”相类似的协议，这就要求各国政府量入为出，有些国家如菲律宾就很难做到这一点，因为他们历来都为财政赤字所困扰。
    货币方面的合作最终是能导致单一货币的。不过假如东亚要走欧洲的路，它还必须大力加快实现货物和人员更为自由的跨国流动。随后便是一段痛苦的经历：设法使有关国家接受像欧洲央行那样的统一指挥机构。
    亚元不会很快出现。但是，如果说亚元永远不会到来，就太低估社会进步的力量了。
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