2. 职称英语
  3. It has become fashionable to issue dire projections of declining prosperity b

It has become fashionable to issue dire projections of declining prosperity b

游客2025-01-30  4
问题    It has become fashionable to issue dire projections of declining prosperity based on demographic aging. But is that really such a problem?
   There is no doubt that all countries of the world are getting older, but they are at very different stages of the process. The median age in the United States — with half the population older and half younger — is currently 36. In Ethiopia, it’s 18, owing to a higher birthrate and a lower life expectancy. In other African countries, it’s even lower. The world’s oldest country is Germany, where the median age is 45.
   The pattern is very clear: The young countries are poor, and the old countries are rich. So why do people fear population aging? I see two reasons. The first is psychological: The analogy to individual aging suggests that as populations get older, they grow frail and lose mental acuity. The second comes from economists and an indicator called the dependency ratio, which assumes that every adult below age 65 contributes to society, and everybody above 65 is a burden. And the proportion of people older than 65 is bound to increase.
   Yet we also know that the productivity of some individuals is much higher than that of others, independent of age. Nothing is inherently special about the age of 65. Many people live longer and do so mostly in good health. The saying "seventy is the new 60" has a sound scientific basis. Meanwhile, education has been shown to be a key determinant of better health, longer life and higher productivity (not to mention open-mindedness). The active aging of better-educated populations can be an asset rather than a problem.
   To appreciate how projections based on the simplistic dependency ratio can be misleading, consider the two population billionaires, China and India. In 2050 China’s population will be older than India’s because of its more rapid fertility decline. But so what? China’s population is much better educated and therefore much more productive. Furthermore, only a minority of Chinese will retire at age 65. We can expect most Chinese to make meaningful contributions through work as long as they are in good health, particularly if they find their jobs interesting and satisfying. Again, this is largely a question of education. In India today, one out of three adults has never seen a school from the inside. In China only 8 percent, mostly elderly, have no schooling. In India, 50 percent of young women have less than a junior secondary education; in China, the figure is only 15 percent. Knowing how important education is to economic performance, who would seriously claim that India’s future is brighter than China’s owing to slower aging?
   Population aging is not irrelevant, but it should be seen in conjunction with other dimensions of human capital, especially education and health. Here the prospects are good. In most countries of the world — with the notable exception of the United States — the young are clearly better educated than the old and may thus compensate for their smaller numbers through higher productivity.
   Viewing the quality of human capital as resting on a collection of elements, many of them manageable, is something that the private sector has been doing for a long time. Every sizable business pays attention to human resource management. For governments, the equivalent would be a form of national human resource management that considers education, migration, family, labor, health, and retirement as components that interact richly — and together drive the richness of the future. [br] Paragraph 3 mainly discusses______.
选项 A、mental and economic factors of population aging
B、real reasons for the prosperity of the old countries
C、the reasons of people’s fear of the aging process
D、common patterns of demographic aging
答案 C
解析    段落大意。题干问的是大意，所以浏览(skimming)段落逻辑可得答案。第三段第二行提出问题“So why do people fear population aging”，然后马上分析答案“I see two reasons．The first is…The second comes…”属于归因推理。【知识拓展】段落大意、结构或逻辑的判断和总结需要扫描关键句和关键词。事物的内部联系包括因果关系、层递关系、主次关系、总分关系、并列关系等；认识事物或事理的过程则指由浅入深、由具体到抽象等等。这些逻辑顺序在写作中得到广泛应用，逆向思维可帮助归纳段落乃至篇章逻辑。
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