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  3. As of late 1980s, neither theorists nor large-scale computer climate models

As of late 1980s, neither theorists nor large-scale computer climate models

游客2024-01-10  33
问题     As of late 1980s, neither theorists nor large-scale computer climate models could accurately predict whether cloud systems would help or hurt a warming globe. Some studies suggested that a four percent increase in stratocumulus clouds over the ocean could compensate for a doubling in atmospheric carbon dioxide, preventing a potentially disastrous planetwide temperature increase. On the other hand, an increase in cirrus clouds could increase global warming.
    That clouds represented the weakest element in climate models was illustrated by a study of fourteen such models. Comparing climate forecasts for a world with double the current amount of carbon dioxide, researchers found that the models agreed quite well if clouds were not included. But when clouds were incorporated, a wide range of forecasts was produced. With such discrepancies plaguing the models, scientists could not easily predict how quickly the world’s climate would change, nor could they tell which regions would face dustier droughts or deadlier monsoons. [br] The information in the passage suggests that scientists would have to answer which of the following questions in order to predict the effect of clouds on the warming of the globe?
选项 A、What kinds of cloud systems will form over the Earth?
B、How can cloud systems be encouraged to form over the ocean?
C、What are the causes of the projected planetwide temperature increase?
D、What proportion of cloud systems are currently composed of cirrus clouds?
E、What proportion of the clouds in the atmosphere form over land masses?
答案 A
解析 根据第一段二三两句提供的信息，当我们能确定云的种类的时候，云对地球气候的影响是可以确定的，因此只要知道将来会有什么种类的云，便可以预测全球温度变化。B项与本题无关。C项与本题无关。D项干扰选项，当我们知道有多少比例卷云的时候确实可以知道全球温度变化，但是问题问的是如何预测全球温度变化，因此应该知道将来的卷云的比例，而非现在的。E项仅仅知道有多少比例的云是不够的，还需要知道这些云里面有多少比例的某种类型的云。
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