首页
登录
职称英语
"Weather and Chaotic Systems" Weather and climate are closely related, but th
"Weather and Chaotic Systems" Weather and climate are closely related, but th
游客
2024-01-03
2
管理
问题
"Weather and Chaotic Systems"
Weather and climate are closely related, but they are not quite the same thing. In any particular location, some days may be hotter or cooler, clearer or cloudier, calmer or stormier than others. The ever-varying combination of winds, clouds, temperature, and pressure is what we call weather. Climate is the long-term average of weather, which means it can change only on much longer time scales. The complexity of weather makes it difficult to predict, and at best, the local weather can be predicted only a week or so in advance.
Scientists today have a very good understanding of the physical laws and mathematical equations that govern the behavior and motion of atoms in the air, oceans, and land. Why, then, do we have so much trouble predicting the weather? To understand why the weather is so unpredictable we must look at the nature of scientific prediction.
Suppose you want to predict the location of a car on a road 1 minute from now. You need two basic pieces of information: where the car is now, and how fast it is moving. If the car is now passing Smith Road and heading north at 1 mile per minute, it will be 1 mile north of Smith Road in 1 minute.
Now, suppose you want to predict the weather. Again, you need two basic types of information: (1) the current weather and (2) how weather changes from one moment to the next. You could attempt to predict the weather by creating a "model world." For example, you could overlay a globe of the Earth with graph paper and then specify the current temperature, pressure, cloud cover, and wind within each square. These are your starting points, or initial conditions. Next, you could input all the initial conditions into a computer, along with a set of equations (physical laws) that describe the processes that can change weather from one moment to the next.
Suppose the initial conditions represent the weather around the Earth at this very moment and you run your computer model to predict the weather for the next month in New York City. The model might tell you that tomorrow will be warm and sunny, with cooling during the next week and a major storm passing through a month from now. But suppose you run the model again, making one minor change in the initial conditions—say, a small change in the wind speed somewhere over Brazil. A This slightly different initial condition will not change the weather prediction for tomorrow in New York City. B But for next month’s weather, the two predictions may not agree at all! C
The disagreement between the two predictions arises because the laws governing weather can cause very tiny changes in initial conditions to be greatly magnified over time. D This extreme sensitivity to initial conditions is sometimes called the butterfly effect: If initial conditions change by as much as the flap of a butterfly’s wings, the resulting prediction may be very different.
The butterfly effect is a hallmark of chaotic systems. Simple systems are described by linear equations in which, for example, increasing a cause produces a proportional increase in an effect. In contrast, chaotic systems are described by nonlinear equations, which allow for subtler and more intricate interactions. For example, the economy is nonlinear because a rise in interest rates does not automatically produce a corresponding change in consumer spending. Weather is nonlinear because a change in the wind speed in one location does not automatically produce a corresponding change in another location.
Despite their name, chaotic systems are not necessarily random. In fact, many chaotic systems have a kind of underlying order that explains the general features of their behavior even while details at any particular moment remain unpredictable. In a sense, many chaotic systems—like the weather—are "predictably unpredictable." Our understanding of chaotic systems is increasing at a tremendous rate, but much remains to be learned about them. [br] Why is weather considered a chaotic system?
选项
A、Because it is made up of random features
B、Because it is not yet very well understood
C、Because it is described by nonlinear equations
D、Because it does not have an orderly structure
答案
C
解析
"... chaotic systems are described by nonlinear equations." Choice A is not correct because chaotic systems [like weather] "are not completely random." Choice B is true, but it is not the reason why weather is considered a chaotic system. Choice D is not correct because many chaotic systems are "’predictably unpredictable.’"
转载请注明原文地址:https://tihaiku.com/zcyy/3329629.html
相关试题推荐
Completethenotesbelow.WriteNOMORETHANTWOWORDSforeachanswer.CLIMATE
Completethenotesbelow.WriteNOMORETHANTWOWORDSforeachanswer.CLIMATE
Completethenotesbelow.WriteNOMORETHANTWOWORDSforeachanswer.CLIMATE
Completethenotesbelow.WriteNOMORETHANTWOWORDSforeachanswer.CLIMATE
Completethenotesbelow.WriteNOMORETHANTWOWORDSforeachanswer.CLIMATE
Completethenotesbelow.WriteNOMORETHANTWOWORDSforeachanswer.CLIMATE
Completethenotesbelow.WriteNOMORETHANTWOWORDSforeachanswer.CLIMATE
Completethenotesbelow.WriteNOMORETHANTWOWORDSforeachanswer.CLIMATE
Completethenotesbelow.WriteNOMORETHANTWOWORDSforeachanswer.CLIMATE
Completethenotesbelow.WriteNOMORETHANTWOWORDSforeachanswer.CLIMATE
随机试题
Theyhadcometobelievehewasinvincible,astrongmuscularmanwithadrills
Aftermorethan40yearsofparalleldevelopment,theinformationandlife
枇杷叶净制的方法是A.刷去毛B.烫去毛C.挖去毛D.燎去毛E.洗去毛
所有继电保护在系统发生振荡时,保护范围内有故障,保护装置均应可靠动作。
如图F08变电站事故照明原理图的工作过程。
为提高××机场航油保障能力,保障扩建后的××机场航油供应,中国航空××油料有限责
我国各级行政机关不具备的职能是()。A.行政立法权 B.司法解释权 C.行
市场风险计量方法包括()。A.缺口分析 B.久期分析 C
金融市场具有( )。A.货币资金融通功能 B.优化资源配置功能 C.风险分
(2021年真题)根据企业所得税法律制度的规定,下列各项中,属于不征税收入的有
最新回复
(
0
)