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  3. The world is on the cusp of a staggering rise in the number of old people, an

The world is on the cusp of a staggering rise in the number of old people, an

游客2023-12-31  19
问题    The world is on the cusp of a staggering rise in the number of old people, and they will live longer than ever before. Over the next 20 years, the global population of those aged 65 or more will almost double, from 600 million to 1.1 billion. The experience of the 20th century, when greater longevity translated into more years in retirement rather than more years at work, has persuaded many observers that this shift will lead to slower economic growth and "secular stagnation", while the swelling ranks of pensioners will bust government budgets.
   But the notion of a sharp division between the working young and the idle old misses a new trend, the growing gap between the skilled and the unskilled. Employment rates are falling among younger unskilled people whereas older skilled folk are working longer. The divide is most extreme in the U.S., where well-educated baby-boomers are putting off retirement while many less-skilled younger people have dropped out the workforce.
   This trend will benefit not just fortunate oldies but also, in some ways, society as a whole. Growth will slow less dramatically than expected; government budgets will be in better shape, as high earners pay taxes longer. Rich countries with lots of well-educated older people will find the burden of ageing easier to bear than other countries like China, where half of all 50-to-64-year-olds did not complete primary-school education. At the other end of the social scale, however, things look grim. Manual work gets harder as people get older, and public pensions look more attractive to those on low wages and the unemployed.
   Nor are all the effects on the economy beneficial. Wealthy old people will accumulate more savings, which will weaken demand. Inequality will increase and a growing share of wealth will eventually be transferred to the next generation via inheritance, entrenching the division between winners and losers still further. One likely response is to impose higher inheritance taxes. So long as they replace less-fair taxes, that might make sense. This would probably encourage old people to spend their cash rather than salt it away. But governments should focus not on redistributing income but on generating more of it by reforming retirement and education.
   How likely are governments to make these changes? Look around the rich world today, and it is hard to be optimistic. The swelling ranks of older voters, and their disproportionate propensity to vote, have left politicians keener to pander to them than to implement disruptive reforms. Germany, despite being the fastest-ageing country in Europe, plans to cut the statutory retirement age for some people. In the U.S., both social security (the public pension scheme) and the fast-growing system of disability benefits remain untouched by reform. Politicians need to convince less-skilled older voters that it is in their interests to go on working. Doing so will not be easy. But the alternative — economic stagnation and even greater inequality — is worse. [br] Observers believe that the rise in the number of old people will NOT______.
选项 A、affect the longevity of the elderly
B、bust government budgets
C、lead to secular stagnation
D、slow down economic growth
答案 A
解析    错误排除。根据关键词observers检索，本题涉及的原句为第一段最后一句“…has persuaded many observers that this shift will lead to slower economic growth and‘secular stagnation’，while the swelling ranks of pensioners will bust government budgets”，即(在二十世纪，人们的寿命变长使得退休岁月长于工作年限，这一经验)让许多观察家相信，这种转变将导致经济增长减缓和“长期性经济停滞”，而迅速扩大的领取养老金大军将使政府预算不堪重负。其中，唯独没有提到的是选项A。【知识拓展】这也是比较简单的一种错误排除题，只要根据关键词快速找到原句，就可以比对选项一一排除，然后得到答案。所以确定关键词很重要。
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