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  3. The world is on the cusp of a staggering rise in the number of old people, an

The world is on the cusp of a staggering rise in the number of old people, an

游客2023-12-31  36
问题    The world is on the cusp of a staggering rise in the number of old people, and they will live longer than ever before. Over the next 20 years, the global population of those aged 65 or more will almost double, from 600 million to 1.1 billion. The experience of the 20th century, when greater longevity translated into more years in retirement rather than more years at work, has persuaded many observers that this shift will lead to slower economic growth and "secular stagnation", while the swelling ranks of pensioners will bust government budgets.
   But the notion of a sharp division between the working young and the idle old misses a new trend, the growing gap between the skilled and the unskilled. Employment rates are falling among younger unskilled people whereas older skilled folk are working longer. The divide is most extreme in the U.S., where well-educated baby-boomers are putting off retirement while many less-skilled younger people have dropped out the workforce.
   This trend will benefit not just fortunate oldies but also, in some ways, society as a whole. Growth will slow less dramatically than expected; government budgets will be in better shape, as high earners pay taxes longer. Rich countries with lots of well-educated older people will find the burden of ageing easier to bear than other countries like China, where half of all 50-to-64-year-olds did not complete primary-school education. At the other end of the social scale, however, things look grim. Manual work gets harder as people get older, and public pensions look more attractive to those on low wages and the unemployed.
   Nor are all the effects on the economy beneficial. Wealthy old people will accumulate more savings, which will weaken demand. Inequality will increase and a growing share of wealth will eventually be transferred to the next generation via inheritance, entrenching the division between winners and losers still further. One likely response is to impose higher inheritance taxes. So long as they replace less-fair taxes, that might make sense. This would probably encourage old people to spend their cash rather than salt it away. But governments should focus not on redistributing income but on generating more of it by reforming retirement and education.
   How likely are governments to make these changes? Look around the rich world today, and it is hard to be optimistic. The swelling ranks of older voters, and their disproportionate propensity to vote, have left politicians keener to pander to them than to implement disruptive reforms. Germany, despite being the fastest-ageing country in Europe, plans to cut the statutory retirement age for some people. In the U.S., both social security (the public pension scheme) and the fast-growing system of disability benefits remain untouched by reform. Politicians need to convince less-skilled older voters that it is in their interests to go on working. Doing so will not be easy. But the alternative — economic stagnation and even greater inequality — is worse. [br] The word "staggering" underlined in Paragraph 1 means______.
选项 A、swaying
B、unstable
C、zigzagging
D、astounding
答案 D
解析    词义界定。staggering出现在第一段“The world is on the cusp of a staggering rise in the number of old people，and they will live longer than ever before”，即世界老龄人口将出现惊人增长，且他们的寿命会比以往更长。假设有读者不懂得staggering的意思，或者不确定staggering rise是快速增长还是缓慢增长，因为staggering还有“蹒跚的”意思，可以借助下文的数据来确定：在过去20年间，全球65岁及以上老龄人口几乎增加了一倍。这样的增长自然是非常迅猛的，由此可以判断选项D符合句意。【知识拓展】本句还有一个短语on the cusp可能会影响理解，它的意思是“在交点上，在顶点”。即使在阅读时不能查阅词典，也可以如本题“解析”所示根据语境推断词义，即依据例证来判断。
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