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  3. The world is on the cusp of a staggering rise in the number of old people, and t

The world is on the cusp of a staggering rise in the number of old people, and t

游客2023-12-30  21
问题 The world is on the cusp of a staggering rise in the number of old people, and they will live longer than ever before. Over the next 20 years, the global population of those aged 65 or more will almost double, from 600 million to 1.1 billion. The experience of the 20th century, when greater longevity translated into more years in retirement rather than more years at work, has persuaded many observers that this shift will lead to slower economic growth and "secular stagnation", while the swelling ranks of pensioners will bust government budgets.
    But the notion of a sharp division between the working young and the idle old misses a new trend, the growing gap between the skilled and the unskilled. Employment rates are falling among younger unskilled people whereas older skilled folk are working longer. The divide is most extreme in the U.S., where well-educated baby-boomers are putting off retirement while many less-skilled younger people have dropped out the workforce.
    This trend will benefit not just fortunate oldies but also, in some ways, society as a whole. Growth will slow less dramatically than expected; government budgets will be in better shape, as high earners pay taxes longer. Rich countries with lots of well-educated older people will find the burden of ageing easier to bear than other countries like China, where half of all 50-to-64-year-olds did not complete primary-school education. At the other end of the social scale, however, things look grim. Manual work gets harder as people get older, and public pensions look more attractive to those on low wages and the unemployed.
    Nor are all the effects on the economy beneficial. Wealthy old people will accumulate more savings, which will weaken demand. Inequality will increase and a growing share of wealth will eventually be transferred to the next generation via inheritance, entrenching the division between winners and losers still further. One likely response is to impose higher inheritance taxes. So long as they replace less-fair taxes, that might make sense. This would probably encourage old people to spend their cash rather than salt it away. But governments should focus not on redistributing income but on generating more of it by reforming retirement and education.
    How likely are governments to make these changes? Look around the rich world today, and it is hard to be optimistic. The swelling ranks of older voters, and their disproportionate propensity to vote, have left politicians keener to pander to them than to implement disruptive reforms. Germany, despite being the fastest-ageing country in Europe, plans to cut the statutory retirement age for some people. In the U.S., both social security (the public pension scheme) and the fast-growing system of disability benefits remain untouched by reform. Politicians need to convince less-skilled older voters that it is in their interests to go on working. Doing so will not be easy. But the alternative—economic stagnation and even greater inequality—is worse. [br] The new trend may also benefit society, for ______.
选项 A、economic growth will slow down as expected
B、high-earning old people pay taxes longer
C、government budgets will be in the red
D、governments encourage early retirement
答案 B
解析 本题问新趋势也可能有益于社会的原因。第3段第1句指出新趋势也能有益于社会，接着第3段第2句指出具体的益处：经济增速放慢的趋势会比预想的缓和(故排除A)、政府预算的结构也会更好(故排除C)，之后用as带出原因：高收入的人纳税时限变长了，因此B正确。剩下的D说“政府鼓励早退休”，但新趋势是，有技能的老年人在延迟退休，若政府鼓励早退休，那相当于在抵制新趋势，故D与本题所问的无关。
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