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Agreement Reached Following Negotiations The history books will show that
Agreement Reached Following Negotiations The history books will show that
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2023-12-28
24
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Agreement Reached Following Negotiations
The history books will show that both sides got their fair share of wins and both made major concessions. Most importantly for the United States, Iran has agreed to dismantle most of its nuclear program, guaranteeing they would not be able to make a bomb for at least one year, over the course of 10 years. Iran’s 19, 000 installed centrifuges will have to be cut to no more than 6,104 for the next 10 years. The 13, 000 decommissioned centrifuges will be sent to monitored storage by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Iran has also agreed to reduce its stockpile of enriched uranium (the material needed to make a bomb) by 98 percent and agreed to halt further enrichment. That material would either be diluted or sold. The heavy water nuclear reactor in Arak will be redesigned, preventing Iran from producing weapons grade plutonium there. Iran will ship the spent fuel from Arak and over the next 15 years Iran will not build any new heavy water reactors. Iran will convert its deeply buried Fordow nuclear facility into a nuclear, physics and technology center. If Iran breaks its commitments, all sanctions could be quickly snapped back into place, according to the terms of the agreement.
Iran is most pleased with the impending relief of economic sanctions. Once it has been verified that Iran has committed to dismantling its centrifuges and diluting or selling its stockpile of enriched uranium, all economic sanctions will be lifted, effectively releasing over $100 billion in frozen Iranian assets. Economic relief was the driving incentive for Iran. Most observers are likely to interpret the inspection, as it applies specifically to military sites, as a victory for Iran. UN inspectors can demand access to nuclear facilities on Iran military sites, but they aren’t immediate or even guaranteed. Any inspections at those sites would need to be approved by a joint commission composed of one member from each of the negotiating parties. The process for approving those inspections could take as many as 24 days, which critics will claim is enough time for Iran to cover up any non-compliance. The final win for Iran is the gradual lifting of an international arms embargo. The accord states that Iran will be permitted to buy and sell conventional arms on the international market in five years; and in eight years they’ll be able to do the same with ballistic missiles. The embargo was a major sticking point throughout the talks, with Iran demanding it be lifted.
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伊核谈判达成协议
历史将会见证,此次双方均有所斩获,也做了重要让步。对美国来说最重要的收获,伊朗同意废除大部分核计划,确保在未来10年当中,伊朗没有能力在一年内制造出核弹。伊朗目前已安装的1.9万台离心机将被缩减至6104台以下。1.3万台拆解的离心机将被移送至由国际原子能机构监控的存放地点。伊朗还同意将浓缩铀(制造核弹的材料)的储备减少98%,并中止铀浓缩项目。削减的浓缩铀将被稀释或者出售。位于阿拉克的重水核子反应炉将被重新设计,以防止伊朗生产武器级别的钚。伊朗将运走阿拉克基地内使用过的燃料,在未来15年内都不会再建造任何新的重水反应堆。伊朗会将福尔道深埋的核设施改造成核物理技术中心。谈判协议规定,如果伊朗不履行承诺,所有的制裁将迅速恢复。
伊朗最欢欣鼓舞的就是即将解除的经济制裁。一旦确认伊朗拆除了离心机,稀释或出售了浓缩铀储备,所有经济制裁将被解除,超过1000亿美元的伊朗资产将被解冻。经济制裁解除是伊朗的主要动力。大多数观察员都可能把这种视察看作伊朗的胜利,这里的视察是专门针对军事基地而言的。联合国的视察人员可以要求进入伊朗军事基地的核设施,但是不能立即得到准许,也不能保证得到准许。视察这些基地的要求需得到谈判双方共同组成的联合委员会的批准。整个审批流程最长可持续24天,批评人士认为在这期间,伊朗完全有时间隐藏任何违规行为。伊朗的最后一个所得就是逐渐解除的国际武器禁运令。协议规定,5年后,伊朗可以在国际市场上购买和出售传统类别的武器;8年后,可以购买和出售弹道导弹。武器禁运令是此次谈判中最为胶着的一个议题,伊朗一直要求解除此禁令。
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