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  3. The economy stopped shrinking a year ago, but America’s unemployment problem

The economy stopped shrinking a year ago, but America’s unemployment problem

游客2023-12-07  24
问题     The economy stopped shrinking a year ago, but America’s unemployment problem is as big as ever. The official jobless rate was 9.5% in July, and would be higher still had many people not given up searching for work. Some 45% of the unemployed have been out of a job for more than six months — the highest proportion since the 1930s. And judging by the recent rise in applications for unemployment benefits, the situation may soon get worse rather than better.
    Why is joblessness still so high? The prevailing view among policymakers is that unemployment is a painful reflection of the economy’s weakness. Americans are out of work because the slump was deep and the recovery has been lacklustre. Stronger demand will eventually solve the problem.
    The main point of contention is whether policymakers should try to speed up that process with yet more fiscal or monetary stimulus. On the congressional campaign trail Republicans tout high unemployment as proof that stimulus has failed, while Democrats, though they dare not use the "S" word, argue that more must be done to prop up growth. At their annual gathering in Jackson Hole this week, Federal Reserve officials are chewing over when and how the Fed might try to boost the feeble jobs market by printing more money to buy government bonds.
    This focus on stimulus is understandable. America’s economy is still operating well below its potential and there is little doubt that most of the rise in unemployment is the direct result of this. But unemployment is high for other reasons too — ones largely neglected in the current debate. Thanks to the scale and nature of the housing and financial bust, the labour market has almost certainly become less efficient at matching the supply of jobseekers with the demand for workers.
    People saddled with mortgages worth more than their homes are less able to move in pursuit of new jobs. The skills of those out of work — disproportionately low- and medium-skilled men in construction and manufacturing — may not be those that employers now need. Extensions of unemployment insurance by Congress have been necessary but have also reduced incentives to seek work quickly. And long periods of joblessness in themselves make people less employable. All this erodes America’s famed flexibility.
    If America’s labour market is less efficient, the country’s "structural" or "natural" rate of unemployment will be higher. The IMF now reckons it may have risen from 5% before the crisis to 6%-6.75%. If so, around one-third of the rise in America’s joblessness is impervious to the business cycle and cannot be solved by boosting demand. That possibility suggests that the debate over more stimulus is important, but insufficient. America needs a more comprehensive strategy to combat joblessness. But what exactly should it include? Much of what economists know about structural unemployment has been gleaned from the sorry history of continental Europe, where fat benefits and rigid firing rules dulled labour-market efficiency. That experience mostly offers pointers to what not to do, from adding to employers’ regulatory burdens to letting the long-term jobless shift to the disability rolls.
    Getting the to-do list right is trickier, not least because misguided meddling could make unemployment worse. But two avenues seem worth pursuing. The first is a more determined effort to help those trapped in "negative equity" to restructure the mortgages on their homes — an area where the Obama administration has been notably timid. The dire figures for house sales during July, released this week, show how urgent this is. Legal changes, such as a revision to the bankruptcy code that allowed judges to reduce mortgage debt, could help. The second line of attack is to overhaul schemes that help workers retrain and encourage them to search for work. That need not mean more spending (though America does spend a lot less than other rich countries on such "active" labour-market policies). The bigger problem is that existing schemes are fragmented and often ineffective.
    The speed of the recovery will still be the main influence on the jobless rate. But if a chunk of America’s unemployment is structural, its policymakers need urgently to think beyond stimulus measures, and also to adopt more targeted policies to help the millions stuck in the wrong place with the wrong skills. Otherwise, even a return to brisk economic growth (something that scarcely looks likely right now) will not be enough to rescue them from the breadline. [br] To help people trapped in "negative equity", it is advisable
选项 A、they be allowed to sell their homes to the banks.
B、they be guaranteed work opportunity to pay the debt.
C、they be encouraged to move to places where they can find jobs.
D、they be permitted to pay less to the bank.
答案 D
解析 推理判断题。根据第七段第三句，政府要帮助那些“负产权”的人解决住房贷款问题：然后第五句举例说明，修改法律也许会有用，比如修订破产法让法官有权缩减债务人的抵押债务，换言之就是减少他们的债务，使他们不必还银行那么多钱，即[D]，而不是把他们的房卖给银行，排除[A]。虽然第五段在讲到美国劳动力市场低效的原因时谈到这些购房者没法到外地找工作，但在提到解决方案时，并没有说要鼓励他们到外地去找工作，排除[C]。[B]文章没有提到。
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