首页
登录
职称英语
Passaqe Two (1) One of the obvious problems with predicting the future
Passaqe Two (1) One of the obvious problems with predicting the future
游客
2023-11-24
64
管理
问题
Passaqe Two
(1) One of the obvious problems with predicting the future effects of climate change is that they haven’t happened. This makes climate studies highly dependent on models, which invariably and unavoidably make simplifying assumptions. This means that using their results to say anything of practical import needs care and caveats, both of which can often be in short supply, or stripped out to make a point.
(2) However, it is now ever more possible for studies of climate change to look at the past, not the future. The 20th century saw a fair amount of warming, and it is sometimes possible to compare what this warming did and didn’t do with what future warming might or might not do. This is what a paper published in Nature this week does in an attempt to re-examine, and perhaps close down, long-running debates about malaria and climate change.
(3) Both the malaria parasite and the mosquitoes which spread it respond to temperature and moisture. Understanding those responses makes it possible to model what changes in climate might mean to the incidence of the disease. Such models have suggested that in a warmer world the area subject to endemic malaria would increase, perhaps quite a lot, though some places would see a reduction due to increased aridity. The caveats here include noting that the climate models can make no great claims to accuracy at the regional level and that such an approach does almost nothing to deal with changes in land use, wealth and public health programs.
(4) One of the main thrusts of the new Nature paper is to see how much of what happened to the spread of malaria in the 20th century can be explained by what happened to the climate. The answer, according to Peter Gething of Oxford University and his colleagues, is not much. They conclude that claims that a warming climate has led to more widespread disease and death due to malaria are largely at odds with the evidence, which shows the areas effected shrinking, and the size of the effect shrinking too. Increases in the spread and severity of the disease burden foreseen over the next 40 years by the biological models are far smaller than the decreases in comparable measures seen over the past century.
(5) The second tack of their argument is to compare the sort of effect seen in biology-based models of where malaria might spread with both models of and data on the effects direct intervention against the disease can have. Again the effects due to climate are small, even negligible, compared with the effects that interventions have achieved already and might achieve in decades to come. The marginal areas where climate might enlarge the area at risk are also, the article argues, the areas where the greatest declines in transmission have recently been seen thanks to increased intervention.
(6) The conclusion is clear. People who are thinking about what to do about malaria should bear in mind that the biological basis of its distribution may change in a warmer world. Those thinking about the overall danger that climate change represents should not spend their time worrying about its impact on malaria.
(7) Is there a wider conclusion to draw about computer models such as those that underlay frightening statements about malaria in a climate-changed world? Perhaps; but like the models themselves, it comes with caveats.
(8) Scientists tend to model what can be modeled, and natural scientists, in particular, tend to prefer models that incorporate at least some aspects of the underlying processes which they are interested in, rather than working purely on empirical correlations. This means that if you search the scientific literature for approaches to the future, you will tend to find answers based on natural processes. If other knowledge suggests that natural processes aren’t the most important aspect of the problem at hand, then it’s a good idea to look at the models with that provision in the forefront of your mind.
(9) The other vital lesson is that the caveats matter. Pretty much every paper presenting a biology-based model of malaria’s dependence on climate contains a warning that changes in economy, technology and society matter too, and aren’t in the model. To transmit the model’s results without important caveats is reckless.
(10) If one is going to be optimistic about the future of malaria, one might also, with caution, be optimistic about the future of assessments of climate change. Things can, over time, get better, especially when the record of what has happened to date gets taken seriously. They will do so quicker if people accept both the usefulness and limits of models of the future, as well as the appeal of models of the past. [br] The Nature paper suggests________may be an influential factor affecting malaria.
选项
A、warmer climate
B、human involvement
C、drought
D、biology diversity
答案
B
解析
细节题。第五段第二句指出,相对于各种干预措施而言,气候对疟疾的影响微乎其微;接着提到,气候变化确实会增加少部分地区的疟疾扩散,但是由于干预增加,这些地区也是疟疾扩散下降幅度最大的区域,可见,人为干预是影响疟疾传播的重要因素之一,故[B]正确。第四段第三句指出,气候变暖使疟疾的传播区域扩大的说法是没有事实依据的,故排除[A]和[C];[D]是根据biology-based models衍生出来的无关选项,故排除。
转载请注明原文地址:https://tihaiku.com/zcyy/3215227.html
相关试题推荐
(1)Thereareobviousdifferences,ofcourse.LadyGaga’sraw-meatdresswoul
(1)Thereareobviousdifferences,ofcourse.LadyGaga’sraw-meatdresswoul
(1)Thereareobviousdifferences,ofcourse.LadyGaga’sraw-meatdresswoul
A、Totellmathpuns.B、Tosolvemathproblems.C、Toperformtonguetwisters.D、T
PassaqeTwo(1)Oneoftheobviousproblemswithpredictingthefuture
PassaqeTwo(1)Oneoftheobviousproblemswithpredictingthefuture
PassaqeThree(1)Oneoftheparadoxesofhumanbiologyisthattheric
PassaqeThree(1)Oneoftheparadoxesofhumanbiologyisthattheric
PassageThree[br]Whatdoestheauthormeanbysaying"Itsfuturecannows
PassageFourSpeakingtwolanguagesratherthanjustonehasobviouspra
随机试题
HowtoApproachDiscursiveWriting?Howtoimprovetheef
限制框架柱的轴压比,主要是为了( )。A.防止柱子在地震作用下屈曲 B.减少
砌块堆放运输及砌筑时应有防御措施。
在投资估算分析内容中,属于工程投资比例分析的是()。A:分析工器具购置费占建设
A.涌泉 B.太溪 C.照海 D.然谷 E.水泉足少阴肾经的原穴是
某市规定自2013年4月1日起对二手房交易中的个人所得税由原来按照交易总额的1%
某国际饭店地上26层,地下1层,建筑面积44000m2,建筑高度108m。其中二
(2016年5月)下列不属于转岗培训的方式的是()。A.与新员工一起参加拟转换
通常由()负责制定交易账簿和银行账簿划分政策和程序,负责明确交易账簿、银行账簿
瘢痕性幽门梗阻的治疗中下列哪项是错误的 A.术前做好充分准备 B.纠正缺水和
最新回复
(
0
)