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资料：Children back at school, nights slowl

资格题库2022-08-02  19
问题 资料：Children back at school, nights slowly starting to draw in and the weather more changeable. The seasons are turning and after an eerily calm summer for financial markets, there's a whiff of uncertainty in the air. Bond yields are up from their lows, and the relentless migration of global capital towards any asset, anywhere, with some yield, is slowing.The concern is the growing awareness of central banks' waning ability to boost growth with ever-lower interest rates and ever-bigger purchases of assets. The debate about if, when and how slowly the US Federal Reserve will raise interest drags on, but if downward pressure on global bond yields from the European Central Bank （ECB） and the Bank of Japan's （BOJ） largesse is drawing to a close, that's a bigger milestone for markets.  A world of higher bond yields is one where the pressure to seek yield in exotic places is diminished. It's also a world where the capital gains that accompanied falling yields become capital losses and investors question the merit of bonds over cash （or equities）.This search for yield in exotic places has, since the end of January, helped the Brazilian real gain more than 20% against the US dollar, with the Russian rouble managing almost as much. The dollar, itself, has fallen back is by 7.5% fall in trade-weighted terms, unwinding nearly 40% of the gains it has seen since mind-2014.  There's no need to panic about bond yields rising, because rate rises in Japan or the Eurozone are years away and the Fed's still tinkering. But 10-year yields on both German and Japanese government bond yields fell below zero for the first time in late June. They have been edging higher through the summer. It's almost as if investors really aren't that keen on tying money up at negative yields for that long – why not stick to cash?In the US, estimates of "neutral" real interest rates are tumbling to around zero. Estimates of how much slack there is left in the labour market are being revised up and after five years when productivity growth has averaged a measly 0.5%, there's widespread acceptance that it's unlikely to accelerate by magic.  But even if we take all of this into account, markets are now pricing in an extraordinarily slow pace of rate hikes by the Fed – from their current 0.25-0.5% range, to about 0.75% by the end of 2017 and to 1% by the end of 2018.GDP growth still oscillates around 2%, the Fed's favoured measure of inflation is at 1.6% and the unemployment rate is trending lower. The pricing of the future path of short term rates seems too low even for the "new normal" economic environment.  All of these currencies have gained against the pound and I can't see that changing. Too much importance should not be placed on either the collapse in confidence immediately after the vote to leave the EU or the subsequent bounce.The economic impact of leaving the EU will be felt through delayed investment decisions as a result of uncertainty about when and on what terms it happens. A debilitating rather than a corrosive impact on the economy will be seen in slower, but positive growth. It will also be felt in further （slower） sterling weakness.  The Bank of England has already cut policy rates from 0.5% to 0.25%, and there's more to come from both the Bank and the pound over the next year. A 5% fall from here would take the pound close to €1.1, and we could see it fall below $1.25 as the Federal Reserve edges rates higher.According to the the passage which of the followings is Not true?A.In recent years central banks adopt the method of lower interest rates and asset purchases to promote economic growth but now such ability of central banks have become increasingly weakerB.Investors doubt that the yields will decline, because the bond prices of financial market are fallingC.In the first half of this year global financial markets are as changeable as the weather changesD.The 10-year yields German and Japanese government bond have been moving up slowly through the summer
选项 A.In recent years central banks adopt the method of lower interest rates and asset purchases to promote economic growth but now such ability of central banks have become increasingly weaker
B.Investors doubt that the yields will decline, because the bond prices of financial market are falling
C.In the first half of this year global financial markets are as changeable as the weather changes
D.The 10-year yields German and Japanese government bond have been moving up slowly through the summer
答案 B
解析 本题考查的是细节理解。
【关键词】not true
【主题句】It’s also a world where the capital gains that accompanied falling yields become capital losses and investors question the merit of bonds over cash （or equities）.在这个世界里，伴随着收益率下降的资本收益变成了资本损失，投资者质疑债券的价值高于现金（或股票）。
【解析】本题问的是“根据本文以下哪一选项不是正确的？”选项A意为“近年来，中央银行采用了低利率和资产购买的方法来促进经济增长，但现在央行的这种能力变得越来越弱。”可以在文中找到依据“The concern is the growing awareness of central banks’ waning ability to boost growth with ever-lower interest rates and ever-bigger purchases of assets.问题是人们逐渐意识到，央行越来越无力以更低的利率和更大的资产购买来刺激经济增长。”故正确；选项B意为“由于金融市场的债券价格正在下跌，投资者怀疑收益率会下降。”与主题句不符，故错误；选项C意为“今年上半年，全球金融市场就像天气变化一样变化无常。”可以在文中找到依据“Children back at school, nights slowly starting to draw in and the weather more changeable.The seasons are turning and after an eerily calm summer for financial markets there’s a whiff of uncertainty in the air.孩子们回到学校后，夜晚开始慢慢地延长，天气也变得更加多变。季节在变，在金融市场度过了一段可怕的平静的夏天之后，空气中弥漫着一丝不确定的气息。”通过比喻，表示金融市场的变化无常，故正确。选项D意为“10年期德国国债和日本国债收益率在整个夏季都在缓慢上升。”，可在文中找到依据“But 10-year yields on both German and Japanese government bond yields fell below zero for the first time in late June. They have been edging higher through the summer.但德国和日本10年期国债收益率在6月底首次跌至零以下。整个夏天，他们都在逐渐上升。”故正确。
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