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  3. By the mid-19th century most of Europe was in the first stage of the demogra

By the mid-19th century most of Europe was in the first stage of the demogra

游客2024-08-19  26
问题     By the mid-19th century most of Europe was in the first stage of the demographic transition. Death rate had decreased, as wars, famines(饥荒)and diseases had; local food shortages were rarer, thanks to better economic organization and transport; public health, medical care and the control of infectious diseases had improved. The population increased rapidly, as Maithus had predicted. Between 1800 and 1900 Europe’s population doubled, to over 400 million, whereas that of Asia, further behind in the demographic transition, increased by less than 50% , to about 950 million.
    But something else was happening there that would have taken Maithus by surprise: as people came to expect to live longer, and better, they started to have fewer children. They realized they no longer needed several babies just to ensure that two or three would survive. And as they moved from country to town, they also found that children were no longer an economic property that could be set to work at an early age, but a responsibility to be fed, housed and (some of them) educated, for years. Worse, with too many children, a mother would find it hard to take and keep a job, to add to the family income. Nor were the young any longer a guarantee against a poor old age: in the new industrial society, they were likelier to go their own way.
    Thanks to Europe’s newborn limitation, in the past 100 years or so its population has risen only 80%, to 730 million, and most countries’ birth rate is now so low that numbers are unchanging or falling. But their composition is very different from the past: better living standards, health condition and medical treatment are multiplying old heads, even as the number of young ones shrinks.
    In contrast, Asia’s population over the same time has nearly increased four times, to more than 3.6 billion. North America’ s too has grown almost as fast, but largely thanks to immigration. Africa’ s has multiplied 5 times, and Latin America’ s nearly sevenfold.
    Why these differences? From around 1950, death rate in developing countries also began to fall, and much faster than it ever had in Europe. The knowledge about how to avoid premature death of small children travelled so readily that life expectancy in many poor countries is now not far behind the rich world’ s. But the attitudes and values that persuade people to have fewer children are taking longer to adjust. [br] What prediction did Malthus make?
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答案 That the population would increase rapidly．
解析 从文章第一段可知，Malthus预测欧洲的人口会增长得很快。
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