首页
登录
职称英语
The recovery of the US economy during the first quarter of this year has be
The recovery of the US economy during the first quarter of this year has be
游客
2025-05-10
38
管理
问题
The recovery of the US economy during the first quarter of this year has been so spectacular that it is creating a new set of risks for financial markets. The great new risks now facing the US economy center on monetary policy and the oil market. The current federal funds interest rate of only 1.75 percent has clearly become unsustainable in view of the economy’s resilience. The Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by at least 0.25 percentage points during the second quarter and could increase short-term interest rates to at least 3 percent before the antumn-the level they were at before September 11.
Such tightening would probably cause refinancing to slump to about $300 billion at annual rates late this year, which would eliminate capital gains as a prop for consumer spending. Rising interest rates could also damp the rally likely to occur in the equity market as corporate profits recover. If investment spending fails to revive, the economy’s annual growth rate could slide back to the 2~3 percent.
The oil price is also a big risk, mainly because the Bush administration appears determined to attack Iraq. The probability of war could easily push the oil price back into the $35~$40 a barrel range for at least a few months. In effect, that would impose a big new tax on consumer spending and corporate profits. The prospect of monetary tightening and a sharp increase in the oil price suggests that late 2002 and early 2003 could be a period of great volatility for the US economy.
选项
答案
今年第一季度美国经济如此壮观的复苏,正给金融市场带成一系列新的风险。美国经济面临的这些巨大的新风险集中来自于货币政策和石油市场。从经济恢复力来看,目前只有百分之1.75的联邦利率已明显无法持续。美联储决定将在第二季度提升利率至少0.25个百分点,并会在秋季前将短期利率提升至3%以上——这也是美在9.11之前的利率水平。
这样的紧缩政策可能会导致今年年底再集资水平跌至3亿/年,这将使资本收益在消费性支出中的支柱作用荡然无存。利率的提高也将抑制企业利润好转下股票市场的回升。如果投资支出没能复原,整个经济
解析
转载请注明原文地址:https://tihaiku.com/zcyy/4070663.html
相关试题推荐
Smugglingisa______activitywhichmightbringdestructiontooureconomy;the
Duringtheperiodofeconomicrecession,dailynecessitieswereinshortsupply
Theverybiggestandmostmurderouswarsduringtheindustrialagewereintra-in
Knowledgeofmicroscopicanatomywasgreatlyexpandedduringthe20thcenturyas
BritainoccupiedJavaduringtheNapoleonicWars.BoththeBritishandlaterthe
Theprevailingwindisthewinddirectionmostoftenobservedduringagiventim
Duringthe19thcentury,JewsinmostEuropeancountriesachievedsomeequality
Smugglingisa______activitywhichmightbringdestructiontooureconomy;the
Chinatodayishometo13billionpeople--nearlyonequarteroftheworld’sp
Massproduction,thedefiningcharacteristicoftheSecondWaveeconomy,beco
随机试题
Whenaninventionismade,theinventorhasthreepossiblecoursesofaction
Nogovernment,anymorethananindividual,willlongbe______,withoutbeingt
公文最基本的作用和功能是()。A.领导和指导 B.联系和关照 C.依据和凭
新建建筑的坡道及其栏杆设计的表述,哪一条是不恰当的?()A.幼儿园设置坡道,
施工阶段质量控制的目标是确保工序质量合格。
张某和李某约定,如果李某能够考上重点大学,张某就赠与李某名牌钢笔一支。李某请求张
患者,男性,20岁,1周前开始出现高热,持续不退,伴有食欲下降,大便干燥,轻度腹
1.企业文化评价工程年度业绩考核管理流程是什么?
各种运输方式内外部的各个方面的构成和联系,就是( )。 A.运输系统
“大学之教也,时教必有正业,退息必有居学。”这句话出自( )A.《学记》 B
最新回复
(
0
)