首页
登录
职称英语
There are several different methods that can be used to create a forecast. Th
There are several different methods that can be used to create a forecast. Th
游客
2025-01-15
25
管理
问题
There are several different methods that can be used to create a forecast. The method a forecaster chooses depends upon the experience of the forecaster, the amount of information available to the forecaster, the level of difficulty that the forecast situation presents, and the degree of accuracy or confidence needed in the forecast.
The first of these methods is the persistence method; the simplest way of producing a forecast. The persistence method assumes that the conditions at the time of the forecast will not change. For example, if it is sunny and 87 degree today, the persistence method predicts that it will be sunny and 87 degree tomorrow. If two inches of rain fell today, the persistence method would predict two inches of rain for tomorrow. However, if weather conditions change significantly from day to day, the persistence method usually breaks down and is not the best forecasting method to use.
The trends method involves determining the speed and direction of movement for fronts, high and low pressure centers, and areas of clouds and precipitation. Using this information, the forecaster can predict where he or she expects those features to be at some future time. For example, if a storm system is 1,000 miles west of your location and moving to the east at 250 miles per day, using the trends method you would predict it to arrive in your area in 4 days. The trends method works well when systems continue to move at the same speed in the same direction for a long period of time. If they slow down, speed up, change intensity, or change direction, the trends forecast will probably not work as well.
The climatology method is another simple way of producing a forecast. This method involves averaging weather statistics accumulated over many years to make the forecast. For example, if you were using the climatology method to predict the weather for New York City on July 4th, you would go through all the weather data that has been recorded for every July 4th and take an average. The climatology method only works well when the weather pattern is similar to that expected for the chosen time of year. If the pattern is quite unusual for the given time of year, the climatology method will often fail.
The analog method is a slightly more complicated method of producing a forecast. It involves examining today’s forecast scenario and remembering a day in the past when the weather scenario looked very similar (an analog). The forecaster would predict that the weather in this forecast will behave the same as it did in the past. The analog method is difficult to use because it is virtually impossible to find a predict analog. Various weather features rarely align themselves in the same locations they were in the previous time. Even small differences between the current time and the analog can lead to very different results. [br] Which of the following is true about the persistence method?
选项
A、The method will work well if weather conditions change greatly from day to day.
B、It is the simplest and the best way of producing a forecast.
C、It is impossible to use the method because weather condition changes constantly.
D、The root of the frequent failure of the method is the assumption on which it is based.
答案
D
解析
转载请注明原文地址:https://tihaiku.com/zcyy/3914208.html
相关试题推荐
Thereareseveraldifferentmethodsthatcanbeusedtocreateaforecast.Th
Thereareseveraldifferentmethodsthatcanbeusedtocreateaforecast.Th
Thereareseveraldifferentmethodsthatcanbeusedtocreateaforecast.Th
Women’smindsworkdifferentlyfrommen’s.Atleast,thatiswhatmostmenar
Somepeoplebelievethatinternationalsportcreatesgoodwillbetweenthenat
Somepeoplebelievethatinternationalsportcreatesgoodwillbetweenthenat
Somepeoplebelievethatinternationalsportcreatesgoodwillbetweenthenat
Wemightmarvelattheprogressmadeineveryfieldofstudy,butthemethods
Wemightmarvelattheprogressmadeineveryfieldofstudy,butthemethods
Wemightmarvelattheprogressmadeineveryfieldofstudy,butthemethods
随机试题
Whatistherequirementforlanguage?Applicantsshouldbegoodatboth______
他二十七岁时开始学英语。HestartedtolearnEnglishwhenhewas
香港是坐落于中国南端的一个弹丸小岛,150多年前,还被形容为“荒芜之地”(barrenrock)。优越的战略位置、通讯条件(communication
随机过程广义平稳则必将严格平稳。()
在食品中添加食品(营养)强化剂的主要意义在于( )。A.补充食品在加工储存与运
调整平等主体的自然人、法人和其他组织之间的财产关系和人身关系的法律规定是( )。
A.清热利湿 B.凉血消斑 C.凉血散肿 D.消肿散结,疏散风热 E.疏
无包膜的RNA病毒在A:胞核内组装,出芽释放B:胞质内组装,出芽释放C:胞核
建设单位可以不用办理施工许可证的情形包括()。A.工程投资额在40万元以下
中国公民陆某2001年通过其在甲国的亲戚代为申请甲国国籍,2002年获甲国批准。
最新回复
(
0
)