[originaltext]M: Cathy, chaos theory seems to be a branch of physics or mathema

游客2024-04-17  16

问题  
M: Cathy, chaos theory seems to be a branch of physics or mathematics. You are an economist, so how does it influence your work?
W: Well, in several ways. I’m responsible for financial development programmes in many parts of the world, so forecasting long range trends and making predictions on the basis of present evidence is what I do. Chaos theory was developed by scientists trying to explain the movement of the planets and changes in environmental conditions. Both of these things are also about making long term predictions on the basis of present evidence.
M: Are many economists involved in this field?
W: An increasing number. In the 1990s, many economists began to look at chaos theory as a way of providing models for forecasting.
M: What kind of "models" are we talking about here?
W: Well, that’s a good question. Because the basic idea of chaos theory is that there aren’t any "models" as such—there aren’t guaranteed forms, but rather patterns of change in development.
M: Doesn’t that mean that forecasting is impossible?
W: No, but it certainly makes it more of a challenge. Mandelbrot, who did the experiment with stock exchange prices, for example, noted that although the outcomes were variable, there were in fact certain constants. What we have to do is make sure we know what these are and take into account all the possible variables.
M: But do economics and finance work in the same way as weather conditions or the movement of planets?
W: Well, no, of course not. There are certain underlying similarities. But we have to leave them for another time.
13. What is the woman’s profession?
14. What was chaos theory supposed to do when it was first formulated?
15. What are the speakers mainly talking about?

选项 A、Their different educational backgrounds.
B、Changing attitudes toward nature.
C、Chaos theory and its applications.
D、The current global economic crisis.

答案 C

解析 在对话开头,男士就询问女士混沌理论对她工作的影响,女士对此进行了解释;男士又问混沌理论能够提供什么样的经济预测模型,女士对此也进行了解答;接着两人又谈论了经济预测是否可行,以及利用混沌理论进行经济预测与通过该理论预测自然天象是否一样等内容,综合整篇对话的内容,可以归纳出两个人谈论的是混沌理论及其应用,故C)为答案。
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