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  3. The following appeared as a recommendation by a committee planning a ten-year bu

The following appeared as a recommendation by a committee planning a ten-year bu

游客2024-01-12  11
问题 The following appeared as a recommendation by a committee planning a ten-year budget for the city of Calatrava.
"The birthrate in our city is declining: in fact, last year’s birthrate was only one-half that of five years ago. Thus the number of students enrolled in our public schools will soon decrease dramatically, and we can safely reduce the funds budgeted for education during the next decade. At the same time, we can reduce funding for athletic playing fields and other recreational facilities. As a result, we will have sufficient money to fund city facilities and programs used primarily by adults, since we can expect the adult population of the city to increase."
Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.
选项
答案     In this argument, the planning committee of the city of Calatrava argues that due to the alleged declining birthrate and the projected lower enrollment numbers in Calatrava’s public schools, the city should reduce funding for education, as well as other athletic playing fields and recreational facilities. At the same time, the committee proposes to allocate more fund to programs used by adults since the adult population is purportedly going to increase. While the recommendation may seem valid and reasonable at first glance, more evidence is needed to better evaluate the strength of this recommendation.
    In the first place, whether or not the decline in the birthrate over a five-year period will lead to a future decline in the number of the newborn population requires more information to examine. Behind this deduction lies the assumption that the increase in the total population, if any, is not able to balance the decrease in the birthrate, which is not substantiated by any evidence. Imagine, for example, that the total population has doubled during the past five years despite the halving birthrate; in this case, the absolute number of newborn babies would remain the same as five years ago. Such scenarios would seriously weaken the committee’s argument, rendering their subsequent recommendation highly suspicious. On the other hand, if data shows the total population remains stable or has even declined, the author’s lines of reasoning will be more convincing.
    Even if we concede the aforementioned assumption, more evidence is needed to answer the question whether the enrollment in public schools will surely fall. Here, the committee makes an implicit assumption that the number of students in Calatrava’s public schools is low. Indeed, if the enrollment Calatrava’s public school has been much lower than the supply of educational resources, and there are few out-of-town students attending schools in Calatrava, the author’s argument can be strengthened. Nevertheless, the premise about student enrollment does not receive adequate support by the committee. For example, while the local student population may be declining, it is possible that students from other areas are also eager to attend public schools in Calatrava, perhaps due to the quality education offered by Calatrava’s public education system. If this is true, the claim that education budget can be safely reduced is cast into serious doubt.
    Finally, without further clarification, the change in the student population in Calatrava does not necessarily reflect the population variations among the adults. One assumption the committee makes is that the total population will stay the same; however, there is no evidence presented to support it.
    Common sense tells us that population can fluctuate quite a lot within a short period of time, due to reasons like job availability, environmental pollution, and government taxes. If, for instance, Calatrava’s air quality is worsening rapidly over the past decades and there is city-wide emigration to other towns, the total population as well as the adult population will steadily decrease. Such a scenario could also explain why the birthrate has declined: because of pollution and health concerns, parents are not willing to give birth in Calatrava. As a result, without proper evidence to demonstrate the real changes in adult populations, it is far from conclusive that the government can spend more in adult programs.
    To summarize, although the number of students enrolled in public schools could decrease in response to the declining birthrate, the committee does not convincingly deliver its recommendation because of some unsubstantiated assumptions in its argument. Without evidence to evaluate the validity of those assumptions, we cannot effectively evaluate whether the recommendation by the committee is reasonable and advisable. (598 words)
解析     本题的思路比较简单，呈现出单一的线性发展模式——从最开始的生育率下降，推导出人口下降，所以公立学校的招生人数会下降，进而可以把钱投入到成年人的项目当中。中间没有绕弯，也没有并行的信息，从头到尾非常简洁：
    C城的生育率比五年前下降了50％→C城的公立学校招生人数将会下降→钱可以从教育转移到成人项目当中
    在这种简洁的论证中，我们只需要把握住每一个论证环节即可。首先从50％的生育率是否能推出入学人口将会下降?这是不一定的，首先就是50％相对值的问题。在备考Argument的世界中流传着这样一个亘古不变的近似真理：如果出现了相对数字，则考虑绝对数字；反之，如果题目中出现的是绝对数字，要考虑相对数字。在本题中，50％是一个相对数字，除了新生儿的数量下降会引起出生率下降之外，有没有可能是分母(总人口)发生了变化呢?如果是这样的话，那么生育率减半引起的绝对效应也不一定大。
    其次，我们还可以看到，就算本地出生的新生儿的绝对数量下降，也不代表未来入学的人数会下降，原因是作者假设了“只有本地出生的人才会来这里上学”，但很明显这个假设是存在问题的，因为一个地区的学校可能会有来自全国乃至世界各地的学生。最后如果学生数量真的下降了，资源是否可以投入到成人项目之中还有待商榷，这一点相信大家可以理解——可选择的选项并非只有学生和成人两种。至此，文章可以写满三段，大功告成。
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