首页
登录
职称英语
There are several different methods that can be used to create a forecast. Th
There are several different methods that can be used to create a forecast. Th
游客
2023-12-23
19
管理
问题
There are several different methods that can be used to create a forecast. The method a forecaster chooses depends upon the experience of the forecaster, the amount of information available to the forecaster, the level of difficulty that the forecast situation presents, and the degree of accuracy or confidence needed in the forecast.
The first of these methods is the persistence method; the simplest way of producing a forecast. The persistence method assumes that the conditions at the time of the forecast will not change. For example, if it is sunny and 87 degree today, the persistence method predicts that it will be sunny and 87 degree tomorrow. If two inches of rain fell today, the persistence method would predict two inches of rain for tomorrow. However, if weather conditions change significantly from day to day, the persistence method usually breaks down and is not the best forecasting method to use.
The trends method involves determining the speed and direction of movement for fronts, high and low pressure centers, and areas of clouds and precipitation. Using this information, the forecaster can predict where he or she expects those features to be at some future time. For example, if a storm system is 1,000 miles west of your location and moving to the east at 250 miles per day, using the trends method you would predict it to arrive in your area in 4 days. The trends method works well when systems continue to move at the same speed in the same direction for a long period of time. If they slow down, speed up, change intensity, or change direction, the trends forecast will probably not work as well.
The climatology method is another simple way of producing a forecast. This method involves averaging weather statistics accumulated over many years to make the forecast. For example, if you were using the climatology method to predict the weather for New York City on July 4th, you would go through all the weather data that has been recorded for every July 4th and take an average. The climatology method only works well when the weather pattern is similar to that expected for the chosen time of year. If the pattern is quite unusual for the given time of year, the climatology method will often fail.
The analog method is a slightly more complicated method of producing a forecast. It involves examining today’s forecast scenario and remembering a day in the past when the weather scenario looked very similar (an analog). The forecaster would predict that the weather in this forecast will behave the same as it did in the past. The analog method is difficult to use because it is virtually impossible to find a predict analog. Various weather features rarely align themselves in the same locations they were in the previous time. Even small differences between the current time and the analog can lead to very different results. [br] The limitation of the trends method is the same as the persistence method in that
选项
A、it makes predictions about weather
B、it makes predictions about precipitation
C、the weather features need to be well defined
D、the weather features need to be constant for a long period of time
答案
D
解析
转载请注明原文地址:https://tihaiku.com/zcyy/3299649.html
相关试题推荐
TheaffluentmiddleclasscreatedbytheAsianboomnowtakeupoverfromexport
AlthoughIspoketoheraboutthematterseveraltimes,shetooklittle______of
Theysuggestedthatanagencybecreatedtocarryouttherecommendationofthe
Inthedesertedfactoryseveralhugemachineswerelefttorustanddecay.A、inau
SeveraltheoriesofevolutionhadhistoricallyprecededthatofCharlesDarwin,
Agreatmanwouldnotandcouldnotchangehimselfduetothedifferentevaluati
Thehumanintelligencethatcreatedindustrialcivilizationnowhastheassignme
MemoryBrainsaredifferentfromcomputers,but
MemoryBrainsaredifferentfromcomputers,but
MemoryBrainsaredifferentfromcomputers,but
随机试题
TheNewBusinessModelsA)Mostemergingcount
对于宫颈上皮的叙述不恰当的是A.鳞状上皮化生是柱状上皮下的储备细胞增生转化为复层
律诗的基本特点有()A.每首八句四联 B.每句的平仄都有规定 C.押平声韵
社区全科医生对患者的任何医疗需求都要做出应答,并亲自解决其中大部分的问题,这体现
尿潴留患者第一次放尿不应超过( )A.500ml B.800ml C.10
依据《普通高中美术课程标准(实验)》,要求学生学会的美术鉴赏程序是()。A.
用来表达流水施工在施工工艺方面进展状态的参数是( )。 A、施工过程 B
某交易者卖出4张欧元期货合约,成交价为EUR/USD=1.3210(即1欧元兑1
A.化学药品 B.进口药品分包装 C.生物制品 D.中药甲药品批准文号为国
什么是结核性心包炎
最新回复
(
0
)