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  3. Free trade is always a hard sell. In all of social science, the idea that co

Free trade is always a hard sell. In all of social science, the idea that co

游客2023-12-22  81
问题     Free trade is always a hard sell. In all of social science, the idea that comes closest to being scientific, in terms of being theoretically provable and true in real life, is that a society benefits from allowing its citizens to buy what they wish—even from foreigners.
    The principle of free trade may be true, but it’s not obviously true. Skeptics think that free trade is more like an article of religious faith than a sound policy recommendation. It’s by considering all these things—the risk of losing your job one may minus the risk of losing it another, the extra money you make if your industry is protected from foreign competition minus the extra money you pay for goods and services that are protected— that you reach the conclusion that on average, free trade benefits us all.
    Still, a half-century of general prosperity in the US has created a climate of toleration, if not enthusiasm, for the free trade. Alarm about imports tends to ebb and flow with the economy—less in good times, more in bad. Part of the explanation is the special nature of the current prosperity, which is widening the income gap rather than narrowing it. Part is the growth of global economic forces that have an impact on national sovereignty. But the WTO isn’t responsible for either of these trends, both of which are probably inevitable and neither of which undermines the basic case for free trade or for an organization empowered to promote trade through binding arbitration of trade disputes.
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答案     自由贸易向来难以推广。如果我们衡量的标准是理论和实践可以同时证明其正确性，社会科学中最接近于科学的理论是大众能够按需购买，甚至通过进口满足需求，能够使社会获益。
    自由贸易的原理可能是毋庸置疑的，但是在表面上看并不一定如此。怀疑论者认为自由贸易更像宗教信仰的经文，而不是合乎常理的可行政策。自由贸易可能使你有失业的危险，但是如果没有自由贸易，你也有失业的危险；如果没有外来的竞争，你的公司可能会多赚取利润，但如果商品和服务受到保护以求避开外来竞争，你的付出也会增加。正是因为考虑到这些因素，我们得到的结论是自由贸易在总体上使所有人获益。
    美国半个世纪以来一直保持繁荣富裕，因此对于自由贸易形成了即便不算热情，也算得上宽容的氛围。对于进口的恐惧随着经济的好坏而增强或减弱——经济繁荣的时候较强，经济衰退的时候较弱。一是由于目前经济繁荣的特殊性质，繁荣在不断扩大收入差距，而不是缩小差距；二是因为全球化的经济对国家主权造成了冲击。但是世贸组织并不对此负有责任，这两种潮流都是历史的必然趋势，没有损害自由贸易的本质，也没有违背世贸组织的宗旨，世贸组织仍有权力通过具有约束力的仲裁解决贸易争端，从而推动贸易的发展。
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