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中国经济上半年总体上保持了持续、快速、健康的发展态势。从宏观经济来说不能轻言
中国经济上半年总体上保持了持续、快速、健康的发展态势。从宏观经济来说不能轻言
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2022-08-02
52
问题
中国经济上半年总体上保持了持续、快速、健康的发展态势。从宏观经济来说不能轻言“过热”。严格地讲,过热不是个经济词汇。过热相当于人体的发烧,是一种病态。这个不严谨的词汇用在经济生活中容易引起误解。比如说,过热和高速度是什么关系?高速度能不能等于过热? 当然,在思想上时刻警惕过热是必要的,但是全社会都来炒作“过热”会有不好的效果。比如,如果中国经济现在过热,下一步肯定会出现通货膨胀¨,可能会“踩刹车”,外资就会对自己的投资重新进行论证。国内企业家也会这样想。过热炒作太多的话会影响一些非专家型的人。就像医生对病人说疾病的时候要科学、严谨,否则会给病人带来很大的心理负担。心理因素在社会经济生活中越来越重要,舆论引导民众心理要有正确的方向。
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解析
As a whole/Generally speaking, China’s economy has kept a continuous, rapid and healthy development in the first half of the year. Viewed from macro-economics, it is wrong to allege there is an “overheat” in economy. “Overheat” is not an economic term, referring to a kind of sickness of the economy corresponding to “fever” in the human body. The use of such an imprecise term may cause misunderstanding in economic life. For example, how would you explain the relation between overheat and high speed, or does the latter mean the former?
Of course it is necessary to keep vigilance all the time. However, it won’t bring any sound result if the whole society talks too much about / makes a sensation/hullabaloo of “overheat”. If China’s economy were really overheated now, inflation would surely follow, then the brake must be applied, and as a result foreign investors would re-examine their investment in China, and then domestic entrepreneurs would follow suit / reconsider their investment too. Too much talk about “overheat” would have an adverse effect on some non expert personnel. A scientific and careful attitude is needed in such talks just like the case when (medical) doctors tell their patients what illness they are suffering from, lest they should / otherwise it might become some psychological burden on the part of the patients. Psychological factors are becoming more and more important in social economic life and a correct orientation is needed for the public opinion to lead the mass psychology.
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