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  3. 资料：Children back at school, nights slowl

资料：Children back at school, nights slowl

练习题库2022-08-02  24
问题 资料：Children back at school, nights slowly starting to draw in and the weather more changeable. The seasons are turning and after an eerily calm summer for financial markets, there's a whiff of uncertainty in the air. Bond yields are up from their lows, and the relentless migration of global capital towards any asset, anywhere, with some yield, is slowing.The concern is the growing awareness of central banks' waning ability to boost growth with ever-lower interest rates and ever-bigger purchases of assets. The debate about if, when and how slowly the US Federal Reserve will raise interest drags on, but if downward pressure on global bond yields from the European Central Bank （ECB） and the Bank of Japan's （BOJ） largesse is drawing to a close, that's a bigger milestone for markets.  A world of higher bond yields is one where the pressure to seek yield in exotic places is diminished. It's also a world where the capital gains that accompanied falling yields become capital losses and investors question the merit of bonds over cash （or equities）.This search for yield in exotic places has, since the end of January, helped the Brazilian real gain more than 20% against the US dollar, with the Russian rouble managing almost as much. The dollar, itself, has fallen back is by 7.5% fall in trade-weighted terms, unwinding nearly 40% of the gains it has seen since mind-2014.  There's no need to panic about bond yields rising, because rate rises in Japan or the Eurozone are years away and the Fed's still tinkering. But 10-year yields on both German and Japanese government bond yields fell below zero for the first time in late June. They have been edging higher through the summer. It's almost as if investors really aren't that keen on tying money up at negative yields for that long – why not stick to cash?In the US, estimates of "neutral" real interest rates are tumbling to around zero. Estimates of how much slack there is left in the labour market are being revised up and after five years when productivity growth has averaged a measly 0.5%, there's widespread acceptance that it's unlikely to accelerate by magic.  But even if we take all of this into account, markets are now pricing in an extraordinarily slow pace of rate hikes by the Fed – from their current 0.25-0.5% range, to about 0.75% by the end of 2017 and to 1% by the end of 2018.GDP growth still oscillates around 2%, the Fed's favoured measure of inflation is at 1.6% and the unemployment rate is trending lower. The pricing of the future path of short term rates seems too low even for the "new normal" economic environment.  All of these currencies have gained against the pound and I can't see that changing. Too much importance should not be placed on either the collapse in confidence immediately after the vote to leave the EU or the subsequent bounce.The economic impact of leaving the EU will be felt through delayed investment decisions as a result of uncertainty about when and on what terms it happens. A debilitating rather than a corrosive impact on the economy will be seen in slower, but positive growth. It will also be felt in further （slower） sterling weakness.  The Bank of England has already cut policy rates from 0.5% to 0.25%, and there's more to come from both the Bank and the pound over the next year. A 5% fall from here would take the pound close to €1.1, and we could see it fall below $1.25 as the Federal Reserve edges rates higher.According to the the passage which of the followings is true?A.The Federal reserve may raises interest rates in December （after the US election）to push towards the GDP growth around 2%B.The Fed thinks that the current inflation rate in the Unites States remain below 1.6% to help increase the employment rateC.After the vote to leave the EU all of these currencies mentioned have gained against the pound and such trend will continue onD.There’s widespread acceptance in the United States that real interest rates are falling to around zero with the rising sluggish labour market and about 0.5% of productivity growth but various economic indicators will not appear miraculous accelerated phenomenon
选项 A.The Federal reserve may raises interest rates in December （after the US election）to push towards the GDP growth around 2%
B.The Fed thinks that the current inflation rate in the Unites States remain below 1.6% to help increase the employment rate
C.After the vote to leave the EU all of these currencies mentioned have gained against the pound and such trend will continue on
D.There’s widespread acceptance in the United States that real interest rates are falling to around zero with the rising sluggish labour market and about 0.5% of productivity growth but various economic indicators will not appear miraculous accelerated phenomenon
答案 C
解析 本题考查的是细节理解。
【关键词】true
【主题句】All of these currencies have gained against the pound and I can ‘t see that changing. 所有这些货币兑英镑都升值了，我看不出有什么变化。
【解析】本题问的是“根据本文以下哪项是正确的？”选项A意为“美联储（Federal reserve）可能会在12月（美国大选后）提高利率，以推动GDP增长2%左右。”与文中“The debate about if when and how slowly the US Federal Reserve will raise interest drags on.美联储是否会在何时、如何缓慢的增加利率的讨论仍在继续。”不符，故错误；选项B意为“美联储认为，目前美国的通货膨胀率仍低于1.6%，以帮助提高就业率。”与文中“GDP growth still oscillates around 2% the Fed’s favoured measure of inflation is at 1.6% and the unemployment rate is trending lower.国内生产总值（GDP）增长率仍徘徊在2%左右，美联储青睐的通胀指标为1.6%，失业率也在下降。 ”不符，故错误；选项C意为“在投票退出欧盟后，上述所有货币都对英镑升值，这种趋势将继续下去。”结合主题句，故正确；选项D意为“在美国，人们普遍认为，随着劳动力市场的疲软和生产率增长的0.5%，实际利率将降至零左右，但各种经济指标不会出现奇迹加速现象。”与文中“ Estimates of how much slack there is left in the labour market are being revised up and after five years when productivity growth has averaged a measly 0.5% there’s widespread acceptance that it’s unlikely to accelerate by magic.对劳动力市场疲软程度的预估正在被修正，五年后，当生产率增长只有微不足道的0.5%时，人们普遍认为它不太可能奇迹般加速。”不符，故错误。
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